England Cricket / Frank Gregan / 07 December 2009 /

England have given a good account of themselves during the opening weeks of their tour of South Africa. They're still big outsiders for the Test series though, so be careful when trading in and out, says Frank Gregan.

Following England thus far in South Africa has been very friendly on the pocket. Twenty20 at this level is always a bit of a toss of a coin and it pays to back the outsider, for no other reason than they have exactly the same chance as the favourite. This point was proven yet again when England won the first 20 over game despite being pretty much twice the price of the hosts.

Fifty over affairs are a totally different matter. The argument is that the longer the duration of the game the more chance class has to come to the fore. That led to odds of [3.0] and better on England to win the One Day Series and the same price available during the first couple of individual matches.

It soon became clear that there wasn't a great deal between these two sides - both were capable of being dreadfully inconsistent. That's not to put down about the calibre of cricket that they produced, both teams played some scintillating stuff but they never managed to do so during the same game. The result was three one sided matches and a very surprising 2-1 win for the English on South African soil.

Two of the games were rained off without a ball being bowled. Ahead of the upcoming test series that gets under way next week, it may be prudent to seek expert counsel about the conditions. I'm not talking about watching Sir Ian try and stick his car key in the pitch; I'm suggesting that rather than listen to Michael Vaughan one should seek out the views of Michael Fish!

Three days prior to the final one dayer last week it had already started to rain in Durban and the forecast was for much of the same. Amazingly, England were available to back at [2.3] to win the series at that stage with the draw at [1.77]. It was a great bet and one for which I'd like to thank Sian Lloyd rather than David Lloyd. She's also considerably better looking than Bumble!

England have acquitted themselves very well on this tour and from a results perspective have done everything asked of them. They are still big outsiders to win the Test series at [4.6] having been traded as high as [5.8]. The train of thought seems to be the longer the contest the less chance of an upset but as the West Indians are proving Down Under that philosophy means that there is value to be had for the in play trader.

During the second test Chris Gayle's men have been traded as high as [46.0] and as short as [4.8]. That range of odds affords a brilliant opportunity to turn the screen green and make a profit regardless of the result. The same is true in the Test Series Winner market where the trading range of the West Indians has been between [9.0] and [95.0].

England's price fluctuation is likely to be less spectacular given that they are considered a much more capable side than the West Indies. The sentimental factor - always evident when the nation that boasts the most Betfarians takes part - will effect their price too. There is still scope to make a profit but the tricky part is finding the right entry and exit points.

Double digit prices should be taken up, particularly during the early stages of individual Test matches. Remember to keep an eye on the weather though and make sure if the forecast is doom and gloom that the draw is on your side. Red sky at night and all that has no relevance but black sky by day means the draw is not a lay!

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