England Cricket / Editor / 08 February 2007 /

England's strong finish to the group phase of this tournament has earned them the chance to partially redeem themselves on this disappointing tour Down Under. They looked to be heading home after losing five of their opening six matches, but victories in the final two games against Australia and New Zealand, saw them qualify with the hosts for this best-of-three final stage.

The tourists looked a transformed team in winning those must-win games, but memories of the Ashes whitewash and early One Day hammerings are still fresh. They certainly are for punters, who fully expect Australia to halt England's mini revival. The home side trade at 1.1 to lift the trophy, with England available at 10.5.

England proved that the Aussies can be overcome in a one off match, thrashing them by 92 runs at Sydney last Friday. Winning a best of three final is a different matter, which the Australian Cricket Board is fully aware of.

Not only does a best of three final generate more revenue, it also gives the Australian team another chance should their opponents win the opener. Sri Lanka did exactly that last year, but the Aussies fought back in style to win 2-1.

That defeat at Adelaide was their first in a home tri-nation tournament final since they failed to qualify for the 2001/02 version, which they contested with New Zealand and South Africa. England clearly face a tough task against a team that they have beaten only once on Aussie soil in the last 14 meetings.

Australia's home form is as impressive against all opponents. They have won 19 and lost just four of their home ODIs since the beginning of 2005. They have also won their last 10 completed matches at Melbourne, the venue of the crucial opening clash that begins at 3:15am (GMT) on Friday. England have lost their last five at the MCG, a record that spans 8 years and three tours.

The second finals match takes place at Sydney, at 3:15am (GMT) on Sunday, and should the teams have one win each, a decider will be played at Adelaide on Tuesday, which is a also a Day/Night affair that begins at 3.15am.

England's only performances at the Adelaide Oval so far this winter have summed up their tour, letting a strong position slip in losing the second Test and being thrashed by nine wickets in match seven of the ODI series.

A good start for England at Melbourne is imperative. Their confidence must be fragile despite those recent victories, and they have been rocked by the news that Michael Vaughan's tour has been curtailed by a recurrence of his hamstring injury. He joins the tour's other injury victims, Kevin Pietersen, Jon Lewis, James Anderson and Chris Tremlett back home in England.

Melbourne hosted the series curtain-raiser and England certainly did not get off to a flyer in that part of the tournament. The Aussies coasted past England's total of 242 with eight wickets and nearly five overs to spare.

England won the toss and elected to bat in that one, which is par for the course for Day/Night encounters at the MCG. The toss winning captain has batted first in each of the last 13 completed matches there, although surprisingly the chasing team has had more success in that time, winning seven of those clashes.

Australia were the winning team on five of those seven occasions, which highlights how strong they are at the Victorian headquarters. They trade at 1.16 to win this one, with the tourists available at 6.6.

England's World Cup preparations have been hampered by injury and Vaughan will now miss out on this bonus opportunity for more time in the middle. Fringe players Ed Joyce and Liam Plunkett have all but booked their seats on the flight to the Caribbean, and Stuart Broad also has a chance to impress after being called into the squad as cover following injuries to Tremlett and Lewis.

The Leicestershire youngster had been somewhat surprisingly overlooked for this tour, but many commentators suggested that he has benefited by not being involved in the carnage of the Test series. He will hope to stake a late claim for a World Cup spot by impressing in Australia, just like Anderson did four years ago.

The hosts have also had their share of injury problems, with Andrew Symonds facing a race to be fit for the big one in the Caribbean after damaging his bicep in last week's defeat by England. Shane Watson is likely to return after his own hamstring injuries and Brad Hogg might play due to fellow spinning all-rounder Cameron White's struggles with the ball.

The majority of slow bowlers have struggled to prosper in this tournament, with only Daniel Vettori featuring among the top 12 wicket takers for the series. This market looks like being a straight shoot out between the Aussie pacemen, as that top 12 contains four Kiwis and the departed Anderson.

No more than four of Glenn McGrath, Nathan Bracken, Stuart Clark, Mitchell Johnson and Brett Lee will play in the first choice line-up, so it is the old stager McGrath who is in pole position to top this market. He has 11 victims so far, one more than Clark, and trades at 1.73. Liam Plunkett and Andrew Flintoff are available at 9.6 and 13 respectively.

The top runscorer market is less wide open. Ricky Ponting has hit 63 more runs than anyone else, despite playing just six matches and his series record of two tons, two half centuries and an average of 90.75 explains his current odds of 1.36. A good performance at Melbourne, where he hit a century against New Zealand on Sunday, would surely open a decisive gap at the top of the run scoring charts.

Ponting will want to finish the winter as it began, with crushing victories over England, and the Aussies did not hide their disappointment at losing their recent 100% record against the tourists. A return to form in these finals will comfort those who have backed Australia into current odds of 2.58 to lift the World Cup.

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