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Back Page Betting: Astute Vaughan could use South African criticism to motivate players

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Despite the weather forecast we should see a fair amount of play at Lord's and Ralph Ellis believes that mind games could backfire on the South Africans.

Sitting watching the rain pour down this morning it's not hard to see why the draw at [2.22] is the favourite outcome for the First Test when it starts at Lord's tomorrow. The summer for punters is becoming as much a weather forecasting contest as a test of skill and judgment of sporting knowledge.

So it's worth recording that after today, when early rain will give way to later rain, it's due to brighten up and just be showery for three days and then Sunday will be blazing sunshine. That's what the BBC say, anyway - and that at least means there's every prospect of a decent amount of play, and a reasonable prospect of a result too. How many Tests actually go five days, these days? Come to think of it more and more of them finish in just over three. So there's plenty of time to get a result, and with the potential of South Africa's pace attack a better than evens chance of it which makes the draw a good lay.

The tourists have certainly been talking a good game in advance of the first match. They've taken a calculated gamble by trying to wind up the two batsmen they see as the weakest links. South Africa's coach Mickey Arthur tells the world in this morning's papers that Ian Bell and Paul Collingwood are vulnerable and will be worried at losing their place to Freddie Flintoff.

"England's areas of vulnerability are obvious," he says. "At number five and number six, (that means Bell and Collingwood), those two are under pressure. If we can get into them with the new ball it will be good. The Flintoff factor also lingers over the side. He's too good not to play and there will be somebody unlucky. There will also be a bowler playing with a cloud over him, knowing that if Flintoff is fit for the second Test it would be silly not to pick him."

Those quotes are clearly designed to get under the skin of Bell and Collingwood, but they might have a further reaction by upsetting the whole England dressing room. Michael Vaughan is an astute enough captain to know how to exploit such things. Could that make a home win at [4.7] worth backing? Arthur's quotes not only have a dig at the two middle order batsmen, but also imply that those in the first four are too weak to protect them from the new ball. Vaughan will be pointing that and encouraging his players to stand up and be counted. Bell, incidentally, who is arguably outside Kevin Pietersen the most naturally talented of England's line-up, is [6.2] to be the home team's first innings top scorer at Lord's and that could just be worth a punt.

Certainly nobody can question the attitude of Andrew Strauss at the top of the order. His wife Ruth is due to give birth to their second child at any time, but the left-hander has made it clear he won't be looking for paternity leave. "I won't be leaving the field at any time. If I'm going to play the game I owe it to my team mates to be totally focused," he says, adding: "My wife understands the situation."

Strauss is [4.2] in the betting to be top first innings scorer, just behind favourite Kevin Pietersen at [3.55] who has obvious reasons for wanting a big innings against South Africa.

Five things you didn't know about Ian Bell

1. His middle name is Ronald, and nickname is Belly (but that doesn't refer to his stomach!)

2. He was a promising footballer and was on Coventry City's books as a kid

3. He was picked for his school - Princethorpe College - to play in the first team at the age of 11

4. He batted only once in his opening first class county season for Warwickshire and was out for a duck

5. He was captain of England at Under 19 level and on an 'A' tour - and is seen by Peter Moores as one of the potential successors to Michael Vaughan

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