Ashes Betting: End of Summer Report

England Cricket / Andrew Hughes / 30 August 2010 / Leave a Comment

Can Strauss keep his hands on the urn?

"For England, everything will depend on Graeme Swann. He is the best spinner on either side, indeed, probably in the world..."

The last of the summer Tests is over and, for England fans, the next five day action will be at Brisbane in less than three months time. As the build up continues, Andrew Hughes looks at what Ashes conclusions we can draw from the summer's action.

Ahead of an Ashes series, it isn't always easy to get a handle on the respective merits of the two teams. Fortunately this year, Australia have been on these shores and playing against the same opponents who England have just faced, so we are in the position of being able to make some direct comparisons between the Ashes combatants. So what have we learned from this Test match summer?

First of all, we've had further confirmation, if we needed it, that England have the better captain. Ricky Ponting's decision to bat first at Headingly was a shocker and the explanation he gave, that the pitch looked good, showed an alarming misjudgement, since the overhead conditions are always the most important factor at that particular ground. Andrew Strauss may be a conservative captain, but working with Andy Flower, he is unlikely to make the obvious mistakes that Ponting does.

The swing-friendly conditions made things tough for batsmen all summer. Only Simon Katich and Jonathan Trott finished with healthy averages. Australia were undone by the swinging ball, not for the first time, but whilst England had similar problems, they also struggled at the Oval where reverse swing and Saeed Ajmal's doosras proved their undoing. It is probably best not to read too much into all this as the ball will not swing much in Australia and no-one will be bowling any doosras.

However, both teams do have specific batting problems. Shane Watson and Marcus North were out of form and both Ponting and Mike Hussey had poor tours. England have their own duo of out of form batsmen in Kevin Pietersen and Alastair Cook, whilst Eoin Morgan faded after a good start to the summer. Morgan though, is not likely to be first choice come the Ashes. Both sides then, have their problems, but both bat deep and it is hard to give the edge to either.

Where Australia have an advantage, is in the bowling department. This may seem a strange thing to say, given how well England have bowled this summer and how long it took Doug Bollinger and Mitchell Johnson to get going. The advantage is not so much in that they have the better bowlers but rather that Ponting will have more bowling options. Shane Watson is a genuine all-rounder and in Bollinger, Johnson and Ben Hilfenhaus, Australia have three experienced front-line seamers, compared to England's two of Stuart Broad and James Anderson.

I remain to be convinced, too, that Anderson will be effective down under. He has been working on reverse swing and will be practising with the Kookaburra ball, but there remains a question mark about his ability to take wickets overseas. For England, everything will depend on Graeme Swann. He is the best spinner on either side, indeed, probably in the world, but will need to do an awful lot of bowling and have a consistently strong series if England are to regularly take twenty wickets.

With two evenly matched batting line-ups and what are likely to be five pretty flat pitches, it is the team which can pose the most consistent threat with the ball that will have the edge. I think that team is Australia. There will be no conventional swing to trouble them, so they can play through the line of the ball with confidence and will have the advantage of a partisan home crowd behind them. Australia are [1.78] to win the series and regain the Ashes and nothing I've seen this summer makes me think they will fail to do so.