/ Editor / 04 July 2007 /

Charles Darwin has evolved into a tough sprinter and the colt looks to have been given a real chance by the handicapper as he bids to return to winning ways at Warwick (19:35).

Michael Blanshard's charge has failed to score on his last ten outings but has been running with his usual enthusiasm despite being harshly handicapped.

Back on a mark that is 1lb below his last winning success, the four-year-old has his best opportunity to score since landing a valuable handicap at Ascot last summer.

The son of Tagula arguably put in superior efforts in defeat last season, most notably behind Fullandby in very soft ground at Haydock where he acquitted himself well against older horses.

Some fair performances this season suggest he is still in good heart and a return to the form he showed last season would make him very hard to beat.

Those who believe in Charles Darwin's ability may want to take a pre-race price as should this prominent runner be on song, his in-play price is likely to quickly contract.

Nobilissima cannot afford a repeat of her below par run at Goodwood last time but a return to the sort of form which saw the filly win at Chepstow on rain-softened ground previously would give her every chance.

The three-year-old has been brought on steadily by trainer John Spearing and there is possibly still some improvement to come. This will be softest surface she has encountered to date which should be factored into calculations as traders try to work out a fair price for this two-time winner.

Some may feel Mujood's consistency is about to be rewarded and it is likely he will run his race provided he copes with the going.
The gelding's win at Goodwood in May was a solid effort and his proven ability over slightly further should stand him in good stead considering the conditions. However, that Goodwood victory was aided by a first-time visor and the feeling is he is not the best handicapped runner in the field and he may be more popular with layers than backers.

Pacific Pride has form on a soft surface and has run creditably on his two starts for new connections. A repeat of his effort at York last season when an unfancied second behind Knot In Wood reads well in the context of this race and it is interesting to see Jamie Spencer back on board.

An outsider to consider could be David Evans' Goodbye Cash. Although the three-year-old needs to pick up on recent efforts, the filly wins her fair share of races and has a crucial victory on heavy ground to her name. Market support would be interesting and the filly is nicely drawn given that low numbers have historically had a slight advantage at Warwick when the ground is on the soft side.

Ground key to Gavarnie

Gavarnie Beau's recent performance may not mark him out as the most obvious candidate in the seven-furlong contest at Newbury (19:25) but his proven ability on heavy ground certainly makes him an interesting contender.

Michael Blanshard's four-year-old could not be fancied on the strength of his latest effort at Goodwood when he struggled from a long way out and was possibly not suited by blinkers. With the headgear left off here and the booking of Seb Sanders a positive move, it will be interesting to see the level of market support for the gelding. If a gamble develops, shrewd traders who snapped up value when the market first opened will be all smiles.

Blue Java looks set to be popular given his consistent profile of late and his ability to handle soft ground. Placed on his last two starts, the gelding certainly approaches the race in good spirits and should come in for plenty of support. On the downside, his record at this track does not read well and although he clearly likes a bit of cut, he is untried on heavy ground. Such factors may encourage layers to believe he may once again only be good enough for minor honours.

Sonning Star represents the younger generation and his profile is one of an improving animal. Although beaten a long way on his belated reappearance run at Newmarket, the colt showed that soft ground was not a problem and it is likely he will improve again for this appearance. The gelded son of Desert Prince will need to step up on previous efforts and the market may give the best guide as to whether the stable believe he has been allocated a fair mark on his handicap debut.

Akram is a rare runner at this sort of trip for Jonjo O'Neil and it will again be interesting to see the level of market support behind the runner. Although limited in ability, the five-year-old has shown himself to be capable on this surface and should any of his rivals run below par, he may be capable of grabbing some place prize money.

Many challenger to Hollinshead's Hill

Although Knapton Hill looks to be a handicap good thing at Warwick (19:00), being due to race off a 20lb higher mark in future races, there are a couple of rivals with the form to upset the likely odds-on favourite.

It was the performance of Reg Hollinshead's filly in a listed race at this track last month that forced the handicappers hand when she finished a good 6th of 11 in a competitive affair run in a good time for conditions. A repeat of that effort would make her hard to beat but traders must decide whether she represents value taking on older horses for the first time.

The main danger looks to be Guilded Warrior who has shown a liking for soft ground and all three of his efforts this season have been solid. His latest victory came at Chepstow where he relished the soft going to score by a decisive margin. Likely to try and force the pace here there will be some who believe he could be too strong for any challenge from the favourite, if allowed to dictate matters at the head of affairs.

Barons Spy showed a consistent level of form before disappointing last time out at Newbury. A return to this softer surface may see him regain his usual consistency though there were no real excuses for that below par run. This step back in trip looks likely to suit and in-play traders should see the gelding doing his best work in the closing stages.

Hiccups has a good win to run ratio since joining Michael Dods and is a horse who has consistently defied the handicapper. Able to race here off just a 2lb higher mark than for his last success it would be no surprise to see him run a solid race. Some may feel, however, that the seven-year-old will struggle to lumber top weight in the prevailing conditions and will be happy to lay him across all markets.

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