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Kevin Pietersen's batting "decline" is a fallacy

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Andrew Hughes turns to hard stats to see if Kevin Pietersen's batting really is on the wane ahead of the Third Test at Galle

As mentioned before on these pages, conventional wisdom should hold no attraction for punters. One of the best books you'll ever read on betting, by Alan Potts, is entitled Against the Crowd and the title is deliberately chosen. You'll find that once you start going against the crowd with your betting, it also changes the way you think about the game you love. Rather than listen to the platitudes of pundits and the remorseless clichés of hacks, it always pays to investigate for yourself.

A classic example of conventional wisdom is building up around the bequiffed person of Kevin Pietersen, he of the grating vowels and bendy-limbed batting. KP, so the theory goes, is on the decline. Having flared initially in the firmament of international cricket, his star is now in the descendant and before long his place in the side will be questioned. And why is this so? Well, the most often cited cause is his extra curricular activity, his string of endorsements, his newspaper column and his celebrity lifestyle, even his engagement to the pop star Jessica Taylor.

Having seen him scratch around for runs in Sri Lanka over the last two months, I was starting to believe it myself. So I did some statistical foraging using Cricinfo's excellent Statsguru facility and it turns out that reports of KP's decline have been greatly exaggerated. Two winters ago, his Test batting average was 42.38. After last winter's Ashes debacle it had climbed steeply to 49.69. Then following a successful summer in 2007, including three centuries and a double ton it rose further to 52.69. Currently, he is averaging 51.60 in Tests. Hardly the model of a batsman in decline.

His recent ordinary form in Sri Lanka simply confirms that there is a flaw in his technique. Pietersen's game is built on activity, constant movement, going onto the offensive, qualities that are not rewarded in the subcontinent where patience is a virtue. Consequently he averages 36 in India, 33 in Pakistan and a lowly 31 in Sri Lanka (so far) But with greater maturity is likely to come greater patience and since he is already an adept player of spin that sub continental average will rise.

A little more digging and I uncovered something even more surprising. Whilst KP is holding his form in Test cricket, there has been a steady decline in his limited overs average. At the end of the Ashes summer, he averaged 87. A year later that had fallen to 55.28. This summer it was down to 51.75 and a poor series in Sri Lanka saw it drop below 50 for the first time. I can't say for certain why this is but I have a theory. KP talked a great deal this year about burnout and his determination to have a long career It is possible that on some level, perhaps even subconsciously, he is prioritising Test cricket, taking his foot off the gas in the shorter game.

But whether that theory is true or not, to consider dropping Pietersen would be the height of folly. Ian Bell has been a much improved number 3, Paul Collingwood, despite looking permanently out of touch, always makes the most of what talent he has been given and Michael Vaughan's return to his elegant best is a joy to behold. But they are men who average in the lower forties. It is indisputable that in the Test arena, KP remains the one England batsman capable of turning a match in a session, capable of trading blows with the likes of Ponting, Kallis and Tendulkar.

If KP wants to convince the doubters, the Third Test at Galle would be the place to do it. Lashed by thunderstorms in recent days, if this match does survive the weather it isn't easy to forecast what the pitch will do. Previous Galle wickets have favoured spin but curator Jayananda Warnaweera thinks this pitch might offer bounce and something for the seamers early on due to the moisture. With Hoggard returning, if England are bold enough to take the advice of my Betfair colleague Paul Moon and play a second spinner, I would go against conventional wisdom and back an England win at the tempting odds of [7.6]

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