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World Cup Super Eights

World Cup Super Eights - England v Sri Lanka, Wednesday 14.30

The ninth match of the Super 8 stage might prove a pivotal one in the process of deciding the tournament's semi-finalists. Defeat for England would mean they had lost both of their matches played against the six 'big' teams left in, having lost to New Zealand in the group phase.

The Kiwis, along with Australia, are in a strong position, having won both their clashes against the other major contenders, whilst Sri Lanka and South Africa have one such win under their belts. England and the West Indies only have a win each against Ireland to show for their efforts so far, and the final four could decided early on in the Super 8 stage.

This is reflected in the betting to reach the semi-finals. Punters must ask to back Australia, whilst New Zealand, South Africa and Sri Lanka trade at 1.06, 1.08 and 1.18 respectively. England follow their clash with the 1996 winners with a meeting against familiar foes Australia and trade at 3.05 to reach the last four.

Sri Lanka are back on track after their narrow defeat to South Africa in their opening Super 8 clash. They have been touted as tournament dark horses but, despite carrying through points against Bangladesh, they needed a win against the West Indies on Sunday.

They responded with a crushing 113 run success over the hosts and will be confident of further improving their qualification hopes against a team they whitewashed in their last meeting. Sri Lanka trade at 1.45 to win this one, with England available at 2.98.

England's 5-0 home defeat to Sri Lanka last summer was perhaps the lowest they sunk during their recent travails in the one-day arena. They have won eight and lost nine since ending that series with a humiliating eight-wicket defeat at Headingley.

Sri Lanka knocked off their target of 322 with more than 12 overs to spare, thanks largely to Sanath Jayasuriya's brutal 152 from 99 balls. The dashing left-hander is approaching his 38th birthday but is still going strong.

He already has two tons and Man of the Match awards to his name in this tournament and is in the top three in both the runscoring and six hitter's charts. He trades at 18 in the top runscorer's market.

Jayasuriya needs 24 runs to become the ninth player to score more than 1,000 World Cup runs and England certainly do not need reminding of his liking for batting on the big stage.

He bludgeoned 82 runs from 44 balls in the 1996 quarter-final between the two sides in a characteristic display of aggressive opening batting that was instrumental in his team's success that year. Jayasuriya averages 44.87 against England and has three tons and a 99 from his last nine innings against them.

Sri Lanka led a batting revolution in winning the 1996 trophy, proving that aggression at the top of the order was as useful as attacking later in the innings. That template remains in place 11 years on as Matthew Hayden, Graeme Smith et al have proved, although England seem to have chosen a different path.

Despite three of their four games being against 'minnows', England's top three of Ed Joyce, Michael Vaughan and Ian Bell have an average strike rate of 60.42, compared with Jayasuriya, Upul Tharanga and Mahela Jayawardene scoring at an average of 81.1 runs per 100 balls.

England admittedly miss the weighty strokeplay of Marcus Trescothick and would be ill-advised to expose Kevin Pietersen or Andrew Flintoff to the new ball, but their plan of laying solid foundations for their two big guns to build on has simply puts more pressure on them to score quickly.

They have instead relied on the in-form Paul Collingwood, who has hit 201 runs in the tournament at an average of 100.5 and strike rate of 100. The Durham man is one of the first names on the team sheet and has risen to 23rd place in the ODI batting world rankings with his highest ever rating.

Despite their humbling last summer, England hold a narrow advantage in the previous meetings between the two, winning 19 ODIs to Sri Lanka's 18. That defeat in Faisalabad in 1996 was England's only defeat in seven World Cup meetings.

Away from their home grounds these two sides have only met at venues in Australia and on the sub-continent, with England winning 10 of those 14 clashes. Their meeting on Wednesday will therefore be on unfamiliar territory, not least because it will be only the fourth game to be played at the Sir Vivian Richards Stadium in Antigua.

Despite the poor performances of the hosts, it has so far looked like being a run-friendly wicket. Australia hit the West Indies for 322 in the opening Super 8 fixture and New Zealand followed up by cruising their way to a target of 178 against the same opponents, with nearly 11 overs to spare.

A high-scoring encounter would seem to suit Sri Lanka - they have batted first in each of their five matches in the tournament so far and have posted an average target of 282. They also have two bowlers in the running to top the wicket taking charts.

Lasith Malinga has 13 wickets at an average of 12.61, closely followed by Muttiah Muralitharan, with 11 at 16.09. Glenn McGrath separates the pair, who trade at 4.2 and 5.5 respectively in the top wicket taker market. Both men have better bowling records against England than they do in their overall careers.

England might decide to make changes to their bowling unit. Sajid Mahmood has taken only one wicket in two games, so Liam Plunkett might earn a recall, although Jon Lewis is on standby to make his first appearance of the tournament.

Andrew Strauss has also been on drinks duty so far but might feature instead of Ed Joyce, who has failed to convince despite hitting two half-centuries. Sri Lanka must choose between bowlers Dilhara Fernando and Farveez Maharoof in their only selection dilemma.

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