/ Ed Hawkins / 15 February 2011 /

Once the draw has been decided, the strength of the teams considered and the numbers crunched, India and Sri Lanka emerge as by far the two likeliest winners. But who should our money be on, asks Ed Hawkins. Follow him on Twitter here

On the face of it, the World Cup looks confusing: three host countries, 14 teams, 13 venues, 49 matches and six weeks to find a winner. But a much-maligned marathon of a tournament is actually the punters' friend.

Thanks to a projected draw and India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh somehow managing to convince the ICC they are deserving of a home draws in the knockout stages, no matter where they finish, it is pretty simple.

Simple in the regard that the tournament is heavily skewed in favour of India and Sri Lanka. On surfaces which the rest of the competing nations, Bangladesh and Pakistan excepted of course, find alien you won't be going far wrong by backing either MS Dhoni's team or Kumar Sangakkara's.

India and Sri Lanka are on the opposite sides of the draw so there is a very real possibility - in line with outright market - that the top two contest the final at the Wankhede stadium in Mumbai on April 2. Both team are just over evens to make the showpiece.

Those who have been paying attention may squeal 'hang on, you said the hosts were guaranteed home ties in the knockout stage so what happens if they have to play each other?'. Good question. Venues will be decided by the seedings for the tournament with India ranked above Sri Lanka, and the Lankans above Bangladesh.

The top four from two groups of eight will progress. Group A consists of Australia, New Zealand, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Zimbabwe, Canada and Kenya. In Group B are India, South Africa, England, West Indies, Bangladesh, Ireland and Holland.

Each winner of the group will play the fourth placed team in the opposite section in the quarter-finals with the second and third-placed teams playing off. You can check the draw here. If we used the odds as our guide to predict the semi-finals, it would look like this: Sri Lanka v South Africa, India v Australia.

Rarely do cricket World Cups respect the odds, however and there are sure to be upsets along the way. For example, [2.03] is available that not all of the Big Eight qualify. Indeed, Bangladesh should make the quarter-finals - they could torment West Indies and England in Mirpur and Chittagong respectively - and at [60.00] they represent an outstanding trading opportunity.

Pakistan are in the same boat at an attractive [11.00]. Despite worries about corruption, they are far too big, especially with the skill and knowledge at their disposal on dusty wickets. They bat deep and in Umar Gul, Wahab Riaz, Sohail Tanvir, Shoaib Akhtar and an army of spinners they have the best bowling attack in the competition.

Tired England, who are [8.80], tepid West Indies at [22.00]and torrid New Zealand are ruled out at a point bigger because of their awful record in Asia in the last five years. They have win-loss ratios of 0.60, 0.57 and 0.41 respectively.

Australia at [6.60] and [6.80] South Africa fare much better in this regard. If there is to be an upset it might just be that Australia claim a fourth consecutive title. With a win-loss ratio of 2.33 they have the best record of any side, including the hosts.

South Africa are organised and efficient but as a wise man once said 'choking is what happens when you stop playing with instinct'. The Proteas always play by numbers.
So that leaves us with the big one to answer: India or Sri Lanka? Easy. We let the odds be our guide. Sri Lanka are a mighty good price at [6.00] considering they have been set up to succeed while India are contracting too quickly at [4.30].

Neither outfit have been exactly firing in recent years - India are ranked fourth on wins with Sri Lanka just behind in fifth - but there is remarkable pressure on Dhoni's team to claim glory as the first main host to do so and, notably in the World Twenty20 in England, they have proven they don't like such a burden.

Recommended bets: Sri Lanka to win World Cup [6.00], Bangladesh trade to win World Cup at [60.00], Pakistan trade to win World Cup at [11.00]

Win-loss ratios last two years: Aus 2.21, SA 1.83, India 1.47, SL 1.43 Eng 1.20, Bang 1.00, Pak 0.58, NZ 0.57, WI 0.39

Win-loss ratios last five years in India: Ind, Aus 2.00, WI 1.00, SL 0.85, SA 0.75, Pak 0.60, Bang 0.50, NZ 0.28, Eng 0.16

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