County Cricket / Ed Hawkins / 23 September 2008 / Leave a comment

Ed Hawkins gets the old calculator out to work out who needs to do what to win the Division One County Championship. And it's not all done and dusted in the relegation spots either.

AFTER weeks of nailbiting uncertainty - just 15 points separated the top five sides two weeks ago - the County Championship is one final round of matches from conclusion and, thankfully for the cuticles, it is Nottinghamshire who are in control.

Calculators have had smoke coming off them around the shires for the third time since 2005 as the competition has gone down to the wire but the equation is now so simple that one doesn't need to have studied maths at Oxford or Cambridge to work it out: if Nottinghamshire beat Hampshire in the four-day clash starting tomorrow, they will be champions.

Coach Mick Newell said: "It's great to play the last game at home and we've got to make sure we play to our maximum potential.

"They'll be no soft games, teams will be desperate to win. If we win, though, it doesn't matter what happens anywhere else."

The Betfair market is wise to the permutation. Notts are as short as [1.55] for title glory and they are [2.02] to beat Hampshire at Trent Bridge. However, if Nottinghamshire fail, then three other teams could still pip them - one of them being Hampshire, who are [50.00]. Have a look at the table here http://content-uk.cricinfo.com/countycricket2008/engine/series/319681.html?view=pointstable
The south coast club have to hand out a real hammering, however, taking the maximum 22 points and restricting Nottinghamshire to fewer than four bonus points, a scenario which seems unlikely considering they are without two of their best players. Imran Tahir, the Pakistan legspinner who has claimed 36 wickets in the section, has returned to South Africa to play for Titans while Kevin Pietersen, barred from playing by England, is another massive loss in such an important game.

If Nottinghamshire, who have held their nerve in tight finishes before, most notably in 2005 when they won the pennant by a slender two-and-a-half points, are to be denied then Somerset, [5.50] chances look the most likely poopers.

They are eight points behind in second position with their final game coming against Lancashire at Taunton. The west country outfit should be confident of victory considering they had the better of the stalemate between the sides in the first round of matches at the start of the season, not to mention that Lancashire have been pretty poor since.

The Red Rose is standing tall and proud following an astonishing victory over Kent. Going into the final innings of the match they looked to be doomed to relegation. But we shouldn't be fooled by that stirring comeback. It came on a dodgy Liverpool surface and their bowlers have not suddenly morphed into world beaters. They would need to be to hurry out a stellar Somerset batting line-up on a good batting wicket.

Durham have a squeak, too at [6.60] but it is barely an audible one. They need a convincing victory against Kent at Canterbury, a tough place to go at the best of times and one made tougher by the fact that the home side need to win as well.

From being title contenders just a week ago, Robert Key's team are now in danger of relegation from the top flight for the first rime since two divisions were introduced in 2000. It will be them or one from Yorkshire, Sussex (these two play each other at Hove) and Lancashire who will join Surrey in the bottom rung next term. It's not just tight at the top, you know.