Test Match Betting: Dhoni and myself in agreement Bangladesh can't take 20 Test wickets

Bat and ball / Frank Gregan / 25 January 2010 / Leave a Comment

Ms Dhoni was quick to dismiss Bangladesh's chances in the First Test

"The betting during the match was intriguing, the Indians started around [1.2], went as short as [1.15] but drifted when the weather caused over 90 overs to be lost during the first two days. India were [3.5] at stumps on day two. Now call me Mr Picky but I think that price reflects just how much the result was in doubt. I've never seen a 'shoo in' priced at [3.5]!"

As Bangladesh eventually succumbed to India in the First Test when a win for the tourists looked unlikely, neither MS Dhoni nor Frank Gregan were surprised by the outcome. Next step: oppose Bangladesh once again when England come to visit....

Everybody loves a David and Goliath contest. Invariably the neutrals are willing the Davids of this world to win. It happens in sport time and time again and cricket is no exception. Remember the land of clogs and windmills rejoicing when Holland humbled England during the Twenty20 World Cup?

Cricket is of course different to other sports because it has different formats and the bottom line is - the shorter the game the more chance of an upset - hence the Dutch enjoying their day of glory. Stretch the format to five days and Holland and their peers have no chance of success against one of the so called Big Eight. That is the reason why Test status within the cricketing world is such a coveted position.

One of the two whipping boys of test cricket, Bangladesh (Zimbabwe being the other) are currently in action on home soil against India. They are also the next test opponents that England will face, the first test scheduled to take place on March 12th in Chittagong.

The first test last week between India and Bangladesh was a pretty tight affair. Many commentators believed that going into the final day all three results were possible. That wasn't a view shared by the Indian camp and skipper Mahendra Singh Dhoni was quick to ensure that everyone present at the post match press conference understood that. According to Dhoni, the result was never in doubt!

The betting during the match was intriguing, the Indians started around [1.2], went as short as [1.15] but drifted when the weather caused over 90 overs to be lost during the first two days. India were [3.5] at stumps on day two. Now call me Mr Picky but I think that price reflects just how much the result was in doubt. I've never seen a 'shoo in' priced at [3.5]!

The point that Dhoni was trying to make was that the result was never in doubt because of Bangladesh's ability, not because of the adverse weather which brought the draw very much into play. It wasn't only Dhoni who was on Bangladesh's case after the match. Opening Batsman Virender Sehwag joined in the debate calling the Bangladesh side "very ordinary." He also declared that the current Bangladesh side aren't capable of taking 20 Indian wickets in a match, a statement that means a test defeat is impossible as far as the Indians are concerned.

That's a cocky thing to say but the thing about this Indian team is that they not only talk the talk, they are more than capable of walking the walk! Having poured scorn on the opposition they had to produce the goods out in the middle and at stumps on day two of the second test, they already seemed to be in an unassailable position. They are currently [1.02] to win the match with the draw at [60.0] and the beleaguered Bangladeshis at [700.0].

India are currently number one in test team rankings, a position that England would love to occupy. The English can't afford a slip up in Bangladesh and the decision to leave skipper Andrew Strauss at home along with strike bowler Jimmy Anderson has received a mixed reaction. The reason why the skipper is having an extended holiday is reported to be an attempt to avoid 'burn out' prior to a massive 18 months of cricket which includes an Ashes tour and the World Cup.

There's no value in backing India during this test campaign but there could well be value in backing England to emulate Tendulkar and Co particularly with the odds being greater due to Strauss's absence. At this early stage with only small amounts matched, it's possible to be the market maker.

A match should be available at [7.8] to lay Bangladesh in the first test, that is the equivalent of having both England and the draw on your side at odds of [1.15]. A 15% return on your capital in the current economic crisis is superb and that is this week's recommendation. Open a savings account and keep putting a little bit away each week and trust Dhoni's judgement - Bangladesh will struggle to take 20 test wickets!