Bat and ball / Andrew Hughes / 16 March 2009 /

Ever wondered how the ICC Test rankings work? Where England figure? Who is officially the best team in the world? Andrew Hughes has all the answers.

Which is the best Test team in the world? Not so long ago, South Africa were most people's ideas of the world champions, having made history by beating Australia in their own backyard. The Aussies, undermined by retirements and weakened by injuries, not to mention having key players Hayden, Symonds and Hussey out of sorts, were toppled from their perch by a hard-nosed, disciplined touring team. The era of baggy green dominance was over. Or was it? Six weeks later, the same apparently inadequate Aussie team, full of debutants, replacements and re-treads have crushed the Proteas on their home turf and, with the series in the bag, go into next Thursday's Third Test as [2.98] favourites with South Africa on [3.45]

So doesn't that make Australia the best team in the world? Well, it does according to the ICC rankings. The latest table has Australia on top with 126 points with South Africa second on 121 points. Now many people regard rankings or ratings of any kind with extreme suspicion. The ICC variety were developed to give some sort of narrative to the rather vague idea of the Test championship. On that level they are far too complicated to really catch on. But they are constructed on a reasonably solid basis. I won't go into the complete formula here, but the gist of it is that a team rated 100 is considered to be average (England are currently on 98). The rankings are also weighted to give preference to recent form and take no account at all of matches played more than three years ago.

Yet as a guide for punters, the ICC rankings are crude at best. For a start, they don't allow for home advantage. And obviously, they take no account of changing personnel. This is a particular problem when, as in the case of Australia, a number of players leave at the same time. Australia's position is boosted by their past successes, so the team of North, Siddle and Hilfenhaus is still being credited for the performances of Gilchrist, McGrath and Warne. For cricket punters, ratings are only of any use as are a guide to future performance and there are more imaginative ways of tackling this than maintaining a single 'master' team rating.

In any case, underlying any rating system has to be knowledge of the players and the teams involved and the ability to compare them objectively. I believe that any such analysis would have to come to the same conclusion: that it is India, not Australia or South Africa, who are the best Test team in the world.

Man for man, India are superior to the other two teams in almost every area of the game, from the opening pair of Sehwag and Gambhir via the powerful mid order to the spin-bowling department. The only advantage they must concede is in pace bowling, where a fully fit Lee, Clark and Johnson would trump Zaheer and Ishant. (as for the South African bowling, Steyn apart, they look the weakest of the three teams). But if Sreesanth, Munaf Patel or RP Singh can raise their game, India will be a match for the Aussies in this department too.

Their supremacy though, is unlikely to be reflected in the ICC rankings anytime soon. Australia have comparatively straightforward series against England, West Indies and Pakistan this year whilst South Africa also host England next winter. It is hard to forsee any slip-ups there. Meanwhile, India's opponents this year are New Zealand, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. Even if Dhoni's side were to beat New Zealand 3-0 in the upcoming series, they would move up just one point from 118 to 119.

But an Indian win in New Zealand would have significance outside the rankings. It would fill a gap in their trophy cabinet and atone for a poor performance there last time. It would also further disabuse people of the outdated notion that Indians can't cope with damp weather and green pitches. Their impressive win in the one day series was a step towards that goal and given that the limited overs game is New Zealand's strong suit, you should think very carefully about opposing the Indians at [2.68] to win the First Test in Hamilton, starting on Wednesday.

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