Don't bet on Stephen Fleming bowing out in a blaze of glory

Bat and ball / Ed Hawkins / 17 March 2008 / 2

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The Hawkeye View - Ed Hawkins looks at the stats surrounding batsmen's final Test to tell us why he's not expecting Fleming to fill his boots in the Third Test at Napier

THERE may not be a dry eye in the house when Stephen Fleming, New Zealand's highest Test runscorer, makes his final appearance in the third Test against England at Napier, which starts on Thursday.

Fleming, thanks to his undisputed position as the Kiwis' most important player, has been able to have the luxury of naming a series as his last, an option which only some of the finest players the world has ever seen have been bestowed.

While the home supporters, purists and lovers of theatre will no doubt lap up the tearjerker, punters can feel excused for shifting slightly uncomfortably in their seats. Although there has always been room for emotion in sport, there has never been space for it in betting.

If the thought of Fleming receiving a guard of honour - something which is most likely - as he walks out for his final innings is an unedifying one, console yourself by planning your bets around the occasion becoming all too much for the left hander.

For there is a history of batsmen who have announced their retirement before their final game failing to go out in the style that they have been accustomed.

The most famous, of course, was Sir Donald Bradman (see a profile here https://content-uk.cricinfo.com/australia/content/player/14240.html). In his last match at The Oval in 1948, Bradman, quite rightly, was accorded three cheers by the English players as he walked to the wicket. Tears filled Bradman's eyes and second ball, he missed a straight one from Eric Hollies to be bowled for a duck.

Since then, very few batsmen have been good enough or been held in high enough regard to be able to choose which Test will be their last. Indeed, only seven of the retired top runscorers of all time have been able to tell the world 'thanks for the memories, this will be my last'. Others have kept it to themselves or been jettisoned before bidding farewell.

Allan Border, Steve Waugh, Graham Gooch, Inzamam-ul-Haq, Viv Richards and Alec Stewart were the lucky ones. The unlucky ones were the punters who backed them for top runscorer honours in the first innings, expecting them to roll back the years with a repeat of some of the glorious displays of batsmanship which ensured they were so esteemed.

None of them managed to outscore their team-mates and only two (Waugh and Richards) managed to pass 50, both of those knocks in the second innings.
Gooch, who is England's highest Test runscorer, bowed out against Australia at Perth in 1995 and managed only 37 and four. Mike Gatting also announced his retirement before that game and scored nought and eight.

That failure of Gooch perhaps highlights the real reason for the failures. Rather than tears blurring the vision like Bradman, it is more likely that the greats just weren't that great any more. After all, why would they be retiring? Gooch was in his 40s in his final Test.

Even unluckier than the top-bat punters are those who expected the team-mates of the departing heroes to raise their game. In those six swansongs only Stewart ended up on the winning team, England beating South Africa at The Oval in 2003.

That makes Fleming, who is sure to be favourite for top bat honours, and New Zealand, [4.6] for victory, less appetising bets.

Scores of retiring greats in final game

A Border 17/42
S Waugh 40/80*
G Gooch 37/4
Inzamam 14/3
V Richards 2/60
A Stewart 38

Who will you be favouring for top bat honours for New Zealand in light of these stats?

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(2)

Andy H | 19 March 2008

Some of those stats were a real surprise. I agree that Fleming is too short to back. Brendon McCullum at 9.0 looks good value, if the familiar collapse occurs.
Paul Moon | 21 March 2008

Enjoyed reading Eds and Andrews articles on lead up to this match. Stats were a surprise. If you forced me to bet I would be interested in 5.2 on Ross Taylor, having already scored a century against us. Combining both views I think 1.98 on the hungry Taylor (av 58.5) scoring more than Fleming (av 43.0) might attract me because I think he should be favourite by a clear fraction mark. Think there is a tiny bit of value there.
Andrews point about the rain might be the biggest factor...