Ashes Betting: The Betfair Contrarian - Why England will win the fifth Test to regain the Ashes

Bat and ball / The Betfair Contrarian / 19 August 2009 / Leave a Comment

Winning the Ashes as England skipper would be by far the greatest achievement of Andrew Strauss' career to date.

As is always the case, the final Test of England’s big summer series is being held at "The Oval, where they rarely fail to deliver. The hosts are unbeaten in seven tests there, winning four of their last six, and have only suffered defeat there once this decade."

The Betfair Contrrain thought England would win The Ashes before the summer and the man is not budging. Here's why Andrew Strauss will be holding the urn come Monday night.

The Contrarian was adamant at the start of the summer that England would win the Ashes and he isn't going to change his mind now in spite of the collapse at Headingley. Here are six reasons why the [5.3] offered on Betfair for England to win the final Test represents great value:

Losing at Headingley was no disaster...

Not long ago, optimism was rife that England were on course to win back the Ashes but Australia's emphatic fourth Test victory has destroyed that. However, the loss at Headingley was not a turning point in the series but instead a continuation of England's dreadful record there in the Ashes. Australia had won three of the previous four clashes in Leeds and two of those also came by an innings, so England's humbling earlier this month was just indicative of their record at Headingley, rather than a sign of how they will do at the Oval.

...and England bounce back well from home losses...

England have played 57 home Tests over the past eight years and over that period they have only once lost twice in succession. That came last year against South Africa at a point where the whole team was in disarray and Michael Vaughan was forced to step down as captain. Besides that, England have responded to three of their past five home defeats - including the last against Australia at Lord's in 2005 - with victory in the next Test they hosted, while drawing the other two.

England have an impressive record at the Oval

As is always the case, the final Test of England's big summer series is being held at The Oval, where they rarely fail to deliver. The hosts are unbeaten in seven tests there, winning four of their last six, and have only suffered defeat there once this decade. England also have a tendency to save their best for the Oval, as was shown last year when they went from being humbled by South Africa after trailing 2-0 in the series to recording a six-wicket victory over them in Kennington.

England's head-to-head against Australia is strong there...

There have been 34 Tests between England and Australia held at the Oval and the visitors have only won six of them. Of the last four Ashes series, England have triumphed there twice, drawn in 2005 (when that was the result they were looking for) and only lost in 2001, at a point where that year's series was already beyond them.

...as is England's overall record in final Tests

Prior to this year's Ashes, England had contested nine Test series over the last two-and-a-half years and despite losing seven of the 29 Tests over the course of those encounters, they were never beaten in the finale. Over that same period they won the final Test on five occasions. That ability to finish with a flourish could prove significant, especially as Australia have lost two of their last four series closers, the most recent of which came by an innings against South Africa. Tim Nielsen's side have also won just one of their last nine final Tests in England.

Anderson and Broad will excel at The Oval

James Anderson and Stuart Broad have been England's top wicket-takers of the series with 12 apiece and their records at the Oval both bode well. Andersen has taken 18 wickets from four Test matches there and has only ever gone one innings without one in Kennington. Broad, who took six wickets in one innings at Headingley, has only represented England at the Oval once before but marked the occasion with five wickets.