Third ODI Betting: Australia beginning to unravel

Australia Cricket / Ed Hawkins / 30 October 2009 / Leave a Comment

Mitchell Johnson will play through the pain

Injuries are mounting for Australia as they start to limp around the India leg of their world tour. Ed Hawkins says they are vulnerable to a fit and firing home side in Delhi

Almost five months of continuous cricket is beginning to take its toll on Australia bodies and minds and they should be opposed in the third one-day international against India in Delhi on Saturday. With the series tied at 1-1 and the prospect of a further five punishing matches to come, Ricky Ponting's side look like dead men walking.

Players were falling by the wayside as they arrived in Delhi following Wednesday's 99-run humbling in Nagpur. Wicketkeeper Tim Paine is out of the series with a fractured finger while Brett Lee (elbow) and James Hopes (hamstring) have been ruled out of match three. Mitchell Johnson, their go-to man with the ball in the absence of Lee, has said he will play through the discomfort of an ankle strain.

Paine will be replaced by Graham Manou, who was due to fly in on Friday afternoon. It is hardly ideal preparation for the keeper but that is becoming something of a theme for Australia on this leg of their world tour.

With an injury list growing by the hour one could argue it was probably for the best that Australia were denied the chance to train at the Feroz Shah Kotla stadium. The groundsman claimed he did not know Australia were coming so watered the practice pitches. It left Ponting fuming that his players did not have the chance to get used to their surroundings.

By contrast India have the sort of spring in their step that gains extra bounce when you know that your opponent is beginning to hobble. They looked a powerful and uncompromising unit last time out and made Australia pay for their sloppiness.

In that game, Australia's tiredness was exposed by their last 10 overs in the field. India plundered 108 to post 354, the highest total by any side batting first against the Aussies. Previously in Vadodara, tailenders Harbhajan Singh and Praveen Kumar took 84 runs off them in the last 9.4 overs.

If Australia again go round the park at the death - as seems likely with their fast-bowling resources stretched - the [2.30] about them taking a lead in the series looks stingy in the extreme. India are [1.75], a price which should be taken given Australia's problems could mount when they finally get a look at the Delhi surface.

From the recent Champions League tournament we know that the Feroz Shah Kotla surface is slow and low and will play perfectly into the hands of the India spinners. In the last one-day international played there, Harbhajan and Yuvraj Singh took seven wickets between them as England were soundly beaten.

The average score in the last five ODIs points to a tricky wicket akin to the ones we saw in the Twenty20 matches. Only twice has a side passed 250 and a mean of 237 suggests there will be some value on the first-innings runs markets with odds likely to be skewed by India's run fest in game two.

A slow wicket helps us to uncover value on the top-bat markets. Batsmen who like to hit through the line of the ball without fear (Virender Shewag, Gautam Gambhir, Shane Watson, Shane Marsh) are probably worth opposing in favour of willowmen who prosper at nudging and nurdling the ball into gaps. Indeed, take a look at the prices for those named above 'to score a 50' and consider odds ripe for a lay.

India's Suresh Raina fits the bill for runs and he can be backed under the auspices of Any Other Batsman at [8.00]. Michael Hussey might be the man for Australia at [5.30]. With a 50 in Nagpur, the left-hander at least has some form to back him up.