Australia Cricket / Editor / 16 February 2007 /

It is premature to deem Australia's World Cup preparations as being in disarray, but they are no longer the red-hot favourites that they once were to win their third consecutive World Cup.

Their ten wicket hammering by New Zealand at Wellington on Friday was their third consecutive One Day defeat and their fourth in five outings. The Aussies will be desperate not to lose this Auckland clash, having not lost four ODIs on the bounce in nearly 10 years, and knowing they must win both remaining matches of this series to hang on to their number one ranking in limited overs cricket.

If the Aussies don't recover their form against the rival Black Caps an in-form South Africa side will go into the World Cup at the head of the rankings. And the Proteas have shortened to 6 in the tournament's winner's market while the favourites have slipped to 3.2.

Australia coach John Buchanan recently queried the amount of competition his side were facing in the run-up to their trip to the Caribbean, but he must now be concerned that the favourites have lost all the momentum that they had built up since winning the Champions Trophy in October.

Ricky Ponting and Adam Gilchrist have been rested for this series and the weakened team has been hit by a succession of injuries. Key all-rounder Andrew Symonds faces a race to be fit for the finals after his bicep injury, while Brett Lee and Michael Clarke have joined him in the treatment room after picking up injuries in New Zealand. Lee is only rated at '50-50' to make the flight to the Caribbean after tearing ankle ligaments.

New Zealand's record-breaking win at Wellington - it was the first time that Australia had lost a ODI by ten wickets - will have lifted their own fragile confidence. They had won just two of their previous 22 ODI meetings with their rivals, and while still being one of the outsiders among the Test-playing nations to win the World Cup, have come in slightly to 12.

The change in fortunes of these two sides is reflected by the current odds for this second match of the series. The hosts are available at 1.95 and Australia trade at 1.98 - surely the first time in recent memory that they are considered outsiders in any game.

The Wellington demolition was set up by a devastating spell from Shane Bond, who is rapidly becoming the Aussies' nemesis. He has now taken 33 wickets in just 10 appearances against them, at an average of 13.12.

He is among the front-runners to top the wicket-taking charts in the West Indies, and another good showing in this clash will see his current odds of 8.2 shorten even further. Bond claimed 17 scalps in eight appearances in the 2003 tournament.

The Kiwi batting line-up is also finding form and they have made light of Nathan Astle's recent retirement. Lou Vincent has been in scorching form since returning at the top of the order, hitting 336 runs in his last five knocks at an average of 84.

His opening partnership with Stephen Fleming is now crucial to their World Cup campaign, as Jacob Oram broke a finger in Friday's win. The big hitting all-rounder will miss the start of the tournament, with Peter Fulton receiving a call-up to deputise for the rest of this series.

Skipper Fleming has also rediscovered his touch recently. He followed up his ton in New Zealand's final Commonwealth Bank Series appearance with an unbeaten 70 at Wellington and is returning to form at just the right time. Before his century at Brisbane he had passed 50 just once in 11 innings.

But Fleming does not enjoy the Eden Park wicket, hitting just three half centuries in 27 appearances there. His average at Auckland is just 24.24, and he has made ducks in two of his last five innings.

The Kiwi skipper is not alone in struggling at Auckland. The Black Caps as a team have not thrived there in recent times, losing their last four and 10 of the last 14. They were skittled for just 105 in their last Eden Park clash with Australia, in December 2005, but suffered an even worse batting collapse in their last outing, against Sri Lanka in January.

The visitors dismissed the Kiwis for just 73, their lowest ever total on home soil, which sent them crashing to a 189-run defeat, the heaviest in their ODI history. However, that defeat came in a Day/Night match and New Zealand's poor recent performances at Eden Park have generally come under floodlights.

The Kiwis have won 10 of their last 14 day matches played at Auckland and so will be pleased that this one is not being played under the lights. Australia have won three and lost one of their Day/Nighters at Auckland and lost on their last daytime visit, in February 1998.

Fleming admitted that his side received the better of the conditions at Wellington, and it seems likely that the toss-winning captain will once again choose to field, as chasing a target has been the tactic in recent years.

In the last 11 Day matches at Auckland the toss-winning captain has chosen to field first nine times, which has been successful on six occasions. The coin has favoured Fleming in six of his last eight matches.

Oram's injury will force the Black Caps to shuffle their line-up, with James Franklin likely to feature. Daryl Tuffey received a surprise call-up to the Kiwi World Cup squad and he will once again take the new ball. He was economical but wicketless at Wellington, in what was his first ODI appearance in nearly two years.

Shaun Tait joined the Aussie squad after Lee's withdrawal and he could go straight into a side that made no inroads into the hosts' batting line-up on Friday. Stand-in skipper Michael Hussey might revert to a lower batting position in this one as the tourists seek to find a balanced side in the absence of Symonds.

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