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Australia are there for the taking...and India are the team to do it

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Andrew Hughes tells us why Australia are showing signs of vulnerability at the moment

The Indian monsoon is the planet's most dramatic and significant wet season. Massive thunderstorms lash the Malabar coast from early June and can linger over the subcontinent until well into October. Saturday's first one-day international at Bangalore came to a squelchy conclusion due to the sheer quantity of rain that fell on a pitch lacking a new fangled Lords style drainage system. With wall-to-wall thunderstorms predicted for Tuesday's game in Cochin and a mixed forecast for Hyderabad on Friday, it doesn't take a leap of the imagination to see Messers Duckworth and Lewis featuring regularly, or even the possibility of more abandonments.

Such meteorological interventions early in the tour will be greatly to the Australian's advantage. Yes it is true that they posted a competitive 307 in Bangalore, an excellent effort in the circumstances. But they are missing two absolutely vital members of their one-day team, captain Ponting and left armer Nathan Bracken. The longer their absence, the greater the advantage to the home side.

More than ever these days, Australia are a top heavy outfit. Their opening batting and bowling is formidable. Hayden and Gilchrist regularly blast them off to a soaring start and Lee, Clark and Bracken can cause havoc in the first ten overs with the ball. But as we saw in the Twenty20 tournament, the support acts are not quite ready for the big stage. And of greater relevance to their chances on this tour is the lack of playing time that the majority of this squad have had on the slow low and dusty pitches of the subcontinent. The middle order batting is a concern. Brad Hodge has never played here and Symonds averages just 15 in India. Both looked all at sea in Bangalore. Stand-ins and India virgins, Haddin and Hopes made useful contributions in that game but they are some way short of top class and it is asking a lot for them to maintain that form over a seven match series. Without Ponting, their batting resources are stretched to the limit.

Whilst the batting is a concern, the bowling could be the most serious problem. Essentially, everything depends on Lee and Johnson making early incisions, but both can be expensive and have little experience in these conditions. Lynchpin Stuart Clark actually goes for near enough 6 an over and the pitches he is encountering for the first time here will offer him nothing at all off the seam. The support bowling is particularly weak. Symonds is out of sorts and Brad Hogg averages an eye watering 132 in India. That is why Nathan Bracken's absence is so crucial. The one Australian bowler to have shown control and penetration in the sub continent, he has an average comfortably under 20 and an economy rate at only a touch over 4. If the Indians can see off the first ten overs, they could pile up some horrendous totals.

India's problem is in choosing which of their elite batsmen to leave out. Some have criticised the recall of Tendulkar, Dravid and Ganguly, but in this longer version of the game, their experience and class will be vital. But besides these stars, they have the dynamism of Uthappa, Yuvraj, Dhoni and the ever-improving Gambhir, all of who are capable of winning matches on their own. Zaheer is back to lead the bowling and though he bowled indifferently at Bangalore, there were signs after the first few overs that he was finding his range.

Sreesanth as ever will be explosive and expensive but he seems to have a useful ascendancy against Hayden at the moment, inducing much swinging and missing from the big man in South Africa and again in Bangalore on Saturday. And their back up bowling is more than capable of tying down Australia in the middle overs, with Harbajan, Pathan, Yuvraj and Tendulkar giving Dhoni more options than his counterpart in canary yellow.

A fascinating, if damp contest is on the cards and with these two sides far more closely matched than the odds currently suggest, particularly until Ponting and Bracken return, I think the 2.9 on offer for India offers excellent value.

• Cricket
• Australia Cricket