Australia Cricket / Ed Hawkins / 20 January 2008 /

Ed Hawkins previews the fourrth and final Test of India's Australian tour...

It might seem odd to expect a draw in the final Test of the series between Australia and India at Adelaide, which starts on Wednesday night. After all, the last Test in Perth finished inside four days, both teams have hardly struggled to take wickets and there hasn't been a stalemate in Tests at the home of South Australia since 1998.

However, backing the draw at [3.3] could be the way to go. And before you start muttering about miracles, don't worry. They say that if you're ever in trouble you should go to the church - Adelaide has 21 to choose from.

Not that fright should take hold, of course. The wicket at Adelaide is so flat that batting should be serene and with the two best line-ups in the world set to bed in on it, the runs should flow.

That should mean that if you backed the draw now, there is a strong possibility you could take a profit by the end of the first session. So long as the historical tradition of the draw shortening in the build-up holds, and because of the batting team making easy progress, you should be able to lay off at skinnier prices.

The braver among you may even want to let the bet run while the panic-stricken will now be asking: 'Hang on, what about this record of one draw in the last ten Tests?'

Good point. Although a closer look at the opposition, Australia - who have won eight by the way - faced in those ten and the scorecards reveal a different story.

For a start three of those victories came against pathetic England outfits and another three against West Indies and New Zealand teams who did more than passable impressions of the boys from Blighty.

Indeed, England collapsed in horrible fashion at Adelaide at the end of 2006, losing not only the match but their pride too on their way to a 5-0 humbling.

To look at the scorecard of that match it would be reasonable to assume that after England posted 551 for six in the first innings and Australia replied with 513 that the wicket must have broken up or become uneven for the visitors to be shot out for 129 on the last day.

But not a bit of it. The reason England lost that match was because they lacked the heart and confidence to bat properly for a couple of sessions.

I was there on that final day and I had never felt air so thick with dread. It clouded the senses of the players and supporters. Walking around the Oval on that first morning the nerves were obvious. So much so that one bare-chested skinhead with a Blackburn Rovers tattoo on his arm was sick on my foot. And I was wearing flip flops. Come to think of it, it probably had to something to do with the booze.

Still, one can't imagine the Indians suffering a similar meltdown nor the Australians, even if they were shown up for what they really are at the WACA: a better than average team coming to terms with the fact that they can't call on Warne or McGrath any more.

It could be another depressing game for the Australians. Were India to bat first they would fancy their chances of getting a couple of players to three figures and posting a total in excess of 500.

Likewise Australia. Four of the last five Tests have produced scores of 500 is a statistic not to be sniffed at. Nor is the fact that there have been centuries in each of the last ten.

If you don't fancy backing the draw, a better bet could be wagering that whichever side bats first scores 500 runs or more on Betfair's team first innings runs market.

Either way this is a Test one should not get into strife over. And if you do, you know where to go.

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