Fourth ODI Betting: Australia v Pakistan

Australia Cricket / Ed Hawkins / 28 January 2010 / Leave a Comment

Mike Hussey has a good record at the WACA

Pakistan have been hopeless Down Under but could their legendary unpredictability be about to show itself once more at the WACA? Ed Hawkins uncovers some stats which might make you want to back them

Team news
Australia, as is the wont of a side who have wrapped up a series, can afford to rest players for the fourth one-day international at Perth early tomorrow (04.30GMT), the first of two games in three days at the WACA. Trying to decipher Pakistan's selection could be made into an afternoon quiz show, although it might not prove as popular as a test on how the talented but ill-disciplined team will perform.

Doug Bollinger and Shane Watson rest up for the hosts with Mitchell Johnson, who is yet to play in the series, and James Hopes coming in. Brad Haddin, who has done the job 13 times and averages in the 40s, is expected to open in Watson's absence.

Pakistan's young tyro opening bowler Mohammed Aamer is struggling to overcome a groin problem. Shoaib Malik may lose out again, which is a blow because Pakistan backers would rather have him than Fawad Alam.

Match odds
Are we buying money by backing a dominant Australia at [1.52] to make it 4-0? Probably. Although writing off Pakistan, traditionally the punter's nemesis, at [2.90] has proved to be costly in the past.

It would be very easy to reckon that after losing all three Tests and all three one-dayers so far on tour, Pakistan would fold again on a pacy Perth pitch, which of all the wickets in Australia, is likely to suit them least. A word of caution.

Pakistan are so unpredictable that they could quite easily produce a brilliant performance. How else would you explain a record of four wins in their last five one-day international dead rubbers with the series lost? Last summer they found themselves outplayed by Sri Lanka, 3-0 down and with two to play. But they won the final matches by 146 and 132 runs respectively. Unfathomable.

To add fuel to the optimists' fire, Australia have lost their last two at the WACA and Pakistan won on their last visit in 2005 when Mohammad Yousuf, then Yousuf Youhana, top scored with 72. This is also a day-night game, which gives the visitors a lifeline.

Pitch conditions
The WACA was once the fastest pitch in the world. It isn't anymore but still helps out bowlers who hit the pitch hard, notably New Zealand's Kyle Mills who took four wickets last time out and South Africa's Lonwabo Tsotsobe, who has also done well. The average first-innings score is 253.

However, the most important stat is the record of sides batting second under lights. It is atrocious, with only two sides in the last 17 breaking the dominance of teams batting first. Perhaps Pakistan are value after all.

Top batsman
Mr Cricket Mike Hussey is a man who should not be discounted in the Australia top-bat market. He has top-scored on his last two visits to the ground and with an average of 56 in the series he is in decent nick.

The home side's market is of particular interest because of the poor form of Ricky Ponting. Ponting has only 40 runs in the series and has been so disappointing that Any Other Batsman (including Haddin) is favourite at [4.00], pipping the skipper who is [4.90].
Ponting's opposite number, Yousuf, is not pulling up trees, either. He is [4.90] but has only 71 runs. Salman Butt, top of the charts with 108 runs, is [5.20].

Featured market
There has been only one century in the last four ODIs at Perth, which explains the [1.42] about another ton-less game. So what about laying Yousuf to fail to score a 50 at [3.50]? In terrible form and under pressure, he looks in need of a break.