Australia Cricket / Ralph Ellis / 31 December 2008 / Leave a comment

After a first home series defeat in 16 years, Ricky Ponting's team are in disarray. With only seven months to go until the Ashes, this is good news for England, writes Ralph Ellis.

Here's a good New Year's quiz: Who said this about whom? "Their timidness and lack of self-belief were there for all to see."

You'd have never believed at this time last year it would have been Australia's top cricket writer about the Australian cricket team. In fact when has any Australian ever been accused of being timid and lacking self-belief? But that's exactly what Robert Craddock, who for 20 years has seen every ball bowled by or at the Aussies, has written in the Daily Mail this morning.

The Mail has turned to him for an expert view on exactly the status of Australia following their surprise defeat by the South Africans. (I say surprise - of course it wasn't if you backed my tip before the second Test to lay the Aussies). And it's pretty clear that Ricky Ponting's team are in disarray with only seven months to go before the Ashes.

Craddock reckons only six players are certain of a place on the plane that brings the team to England to defend the little urn. Those are Ponting, simon Katich, Michael Hussey, Michael Clarke, Brad Haddin and Mitchell Johnson. And in his words "they have paid a telling price for the lack of planning to fill the void following the retirement of spinners Shane Warne, Stuart MacGill and Brad Hogg."

As he points out: "Australia are now the oldest Test team in the world, which would be fine if they were still capable of steamrollering the opposition like they have done for most of the 20 years I have been following them.

"But the bell has been tolling for a while, long before the winning runs were hit by South Africa in the Melbourne Test. Perhaps clearing out the old wood won't be a bad thing. But the composition of the attack for the Ashes campaign is anyone's guess. Usually only two or at most three positions are open, so the selectors have a real dilemma - especially with injuries to all-rounders Andrew Symonds and Shane Watson. And Brett Lee is to go under the knife for his foot injury and is likely to be sidelined for up to six weeks.

"As for the batting, it also should be no surprise that at 37 Matthew Hayden has struggled. Apart from Justin Langer he is Australia's oldest regular opening batsman in 70 years. He has kept his place for the last Test in Sydney but a Ashes place looks another galaxy away."

Amazingly Australia are still [2.1] favourites to win the series next summer. At a time when Kevin Pietersen's team have shown promise in India while the Aussies have just been wiped away in two successive series, those odds can't be right. It makes sense to lay them.

It also makes sense to lay the Aussies at [2.9] in the third Test after Graeme Smith's South Africans mauled them so thoroughly. Meanwhile the Aussies have called up rookie quick bowler Doug Bollinger for the game. Now let me think . . . Bollinger .. . New Year . . . a possible Ashes win . . . champagne, anyone?!

Five things you might not know about Graeme Smith

1. Born in Johannesburg in 1981, his middle name is Craig. He has one brother called Gavin

2. The 277 he scored at Edgbaston in 2003 is still the highest individual Test innings ever made by a South African

3. He has studied psychology, and says if he hadn't been a cricketer he'd have like to make a career from it

4. His favourite music is the South African rock band Prime Circle - and favourite film Remember the Titans starring Denzil Washington

5. He chose the number 15 for his one day international shirt because he used to play full back for his school rugby team