Australia Cricket / Editor / 23 March 2007 /

World Cup Group A - Australia v South Africa, Saturday 13.30

This clash of the favourites sees the World Cup start in earnest. Ireland's progression to the Super Eight stage has been the major on-field story, but the losers of this match will have their title hopes seriously harmed.

The Irish might well be joined in the second round by Bangladesh and even Kenya, which would further increase the importance of this match. With points carried forward to the Super Eights, the teams who lost against their fellow qualifiers would be at a disadvantage in a weakened second phase.

Punters still expect these two to feature in the latter stages, with Australia trading at 2.88 to win their third consecutive World Cup and South Africa at 5.4 to claim their first. With qualification ensured after they both steamrollered Scotland and the Netherlands as expected, a win against their main rivals would be a serious marker for the rest of the field.

The Aussies were 3.35 in the tournament winner's market shortly before it commenced, while the Proteas have remained a steady second in the betting. Punters clearly think that Australia have got their recent troubles against England and New Zealand out of their system, not so much with the hammerings of the two minnows, but more with their impressive dismantling of England in a warm-up fixture.

Australia won that St Vincent clash by five wickets and with more than nine overs to spare, which contrasted with South Africa's defeat by Pakistan and fright at the hands of Ireland. The Aussies' injury problems have also eased, with Matthew Hayden coming through both previous group games unscathed and Andrew Symonds pushing for a recall for this clash.

The holders' better preparation sees them trade at 1.7 to win this clash, with Graeme Smith's men available at 2.42. Little can be read into the teams' handsome wins over Scotland and the Netherlands although, for the record, South Africa have the slightly better net run rate.

Those matches were little more than warm-up matches, which the batsmen particularly enjoyed. Five players on each side have already hit at least a half century, whilst Brad Hodge, Jacques Kallis and Ricky Ponting have all helped themselves to tons.

The Aussie skipper has justified his favouritism in the top runscorer market, in which he now trades at 5.8. His counterpart Smith leads the way amongst players to have batted only twice (with 158 runs) and has now shortened to 9 in this market.

Although these two sides have been impressive with the bat so far, they have not come close to matching the scores they posted when they last faced each other. The Proteas famously overhauled Australia's 434-5 at Johannesburg in March 2006, clinching a series win in the process.

The Aussies hold a narrow advantage in their previous meetings overall, winning 34 to South Africa's 28. There have been three ties, of which one was effectively a defeat for the Proteas - the infamous semi-final at Edgbaston in 1999. They have won one apiece of their other World Cup clashes.

Smith's men took over as the world's top-ranked team shortly before the tournament, thanks largely to their impressive form on home soil and Australia's surprising run of defeats against England and the Black Caps.

South Africa won 13 and lost three of their matches in the run up to the World Cup, of which only four were played away from home. However, they traditionally like playing in the Caribbean, where they have won 12 of their last 14 one-dayers, although their two matches in this tournament are the only ones to have been played against anyone other than the West Indies.

Australia lost six of their last seven ODIs going into the World Cup, but preceded that poor spell with a run of 10 straight wins that included victory at the Champions Trophy. In the period that South Africa won 83.3% of their ODIs in the West Indies, Australia won just 57.1%.

Only one ODI has been played at Warner Park before this tournament, between the West Indies and India in May 2006, when the hosts' successfully chased down India's 245-9 with a ball to spare. Despite the form of the batsmen on show and recent history between the two sides, punters might want to check out the lower end in each team's innings runs market.

South Africa's bowling has recently been their major strength, due mainly to the form of Shaun Pollock and Makhaya Ntini, first and third in the ODI bowling ranking lists. They have bowled just 25 overs between them in the tournament so far, but are sure to lead the Proteas' attack in this clash. They both average fewer than 30 with the ball against the Baggy Greens.

Although Glenn McGrath has started his international swansong in typical fashion, claiming five wickets at an average of 9.4, Australia have also been able to use their back-up bowlers. Brad Hogg has made light of Symonds' absence, by taking five scalps at an even better average than McGrath, who is the current narrow favourite in the top wicket taker market, trading at 9.2.

Both sides will be high on confidence ahead of this clash, but they know another cakewalk is not in the offing; in the last six ODIs between the two that have been won by the team batting second, the most number of balls remaining has been 21. Another tight tussle here would suggest we are in for an enthralling second part of the tournament.

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