Michael Vaughan: KP ton could spark England ODI win

Michaels Match Previews / Michael Vaughan / 20 January 2011 / Leave a Comment

Can Kev do the business?

"I’m going to back Kevin Pietersen at [4.9] to be England’s top batsman."

Australia were deserved winners in the first ODI with a superb innings from Shane Watson. So does ex-England skipper Michael Vaughan believe that the tourists' batsmen can step up and help their side level the series?

I arrived back yesterday and it's great to be home. From my own experiences, I know that players can feel jaded when they've been away for as long as England have and Australian tours can be grueling, emotionally as well as physically.

Having said that, it's easier to stay motivated when you're winning and when there's healthy competition for places in the squad. The England selectors have rotated the players well on this tour, with key men getting well-timed rests so I don't expect them to be affected by tiredness.

At [1.82], Australia are favourites to win the second ODI and, following their success last Sunday, that makes sense. I said in my preview that they would be a stronger proposition in the ODI's and Shane Watson and co. showed what a formidable team they still are with victory in Melbourne.

For England, it's all change at Hobart, with a new opening batsman coming in and Graeme Swann set to miss the next four matches through injury. I can understand why the tourists are [2.2] as they may struggle without their first choice spinner. Michael Yardy has often been England's unsung hero but the pressure is on him to perform now.

In ODIs everybody has a part to play and, without Paul Collingwood, England lack bowling options. In Melbourne, Australian players chipped in with two or three overs to back up the attack, showing that one day cricket is all about team performance. England will need to field well if they are to upset the odds.

At the top of the batting order, Matt Prior may take time to acclimatise but what England really need, if they're to win this match, is for one of the guys to hit a century. Watson showed in the last match that if you do that, the game is pretty much won.

So who will do the damage for England? I think the best bet is to back a middle order batsman. The new ball can be hard to face at Hobart so it will be interesting to see how Matt Prior handles it. He has the chance to play a good innings and work his way back into ODI cricket. I hope he takes it, plays himself in and doesn't just come out swinging. Ian Bell scored 192 here against Australia A in November but he'll probably come in at number five and by then he may not get enough time at the crease. I'm going to back Kevin Pietersen at [4.9] to be England's top batsman.

For the Australians, it's hard to look beyond the man of the moment. Shane Watson was outstanding on his way to 161 not out at Melbourne so it's easy to see why he's the favourite to top score at [4.3]. You want longer odds in this market though and, with Michael Clarke [6.0] due a big innings, I'll have a bet on him.

I don't anticipate a high scoring match. This is not a 300 pitch and, with a bit of moisture as well as cloud overhead, the seamers could benefit. Much will depend on the match day climate but I'm struggling to see beyond a second Aussie victory.

Recommended bets:
Back Australia @ [1.86].
Back Kevin Pietersen to be Top England Batsman @ [4.9]
Back Michael Clarke to be Top Australian Batsman @ [6.0]