Top England Series Batsman and Bowler

Ashes Betting / Ed Hawkins / 19 November 2010 / Leave a Comment

Graeme Swann is slightly over-priced when you consider his stats and his superb record overseas

"Swann, who has taken 65 wickets in the last 12 months and is rated as the world’s No 1 spinner, has four times finished as top England wicket-taker in the eight series he has played. Basic maths make him an even money shot."

The top England batsman market is a tricky one to call but things are a lot more clear cut when it comes to the bowlers, says Ed Hawkins.

Even the layman would be able to pick out Graeme Swann as England's most probable top wicket-taker in the Ashes. And although there has to be a predilection among punters to swim against the tide, Swann is worth getting carried away for.

The simple reason for that is his price is wrong. Not by much but it is erroneous. Swann is [2.30] when, statistically, he should be [2.00]. There is even an argument for him being odds-on.

Swann, who has taken 65 wickets in the last 12 months and is rated as the world's No 1 spinner, has four times finished as top England wicket-taker in the eight series he has played. Basic maths make him an even money shot.

However, all four of those section-heading efforts have come away from home when England's predominant seam and swing attack has been blunted somewhat. With Australia's pitches expected to suit Swann more than his teammates, it is arguable that he should be skinnier. Swann is [4.30] to be top bowler overall.

His main rivals appear to be James Anderson, who is [6.20] and Stuart Broad, a [4.50] chance. Indeed, in terms of strike rate there is little to choose between him and Anderson, just 0.4. A slender margin.

That would appear to make the gulf in price unjustified. However, Swann looks certain to bowl more overs, increasing his chance for wickets. In the last 12 months he bowled 142 more overs than Anderson.

Steven Finn has the best strike rate of any bowler in the series at 36.9. He is [8.00] but bear in mind that he is largely untested, having taken a clutch of wickets against Bangladesh.

England's top-bat market is tougher to call, mainly because of the problem of putting individual players' weaknesses to the back of the mind. Each of England's probable top six have issues.

Strauss (vulnerable to Australia's left-arm new-ball bowlers), Cook (dreadful technique), Trott (poor starter), Pietersen (out of form), Collingwood (out of form) and Bell (weak-minded).

Of that analysis, only Trott and Bell appear tenuous. Trott at [5.20] may well be value. After all, he has no fear against Australia, having hit a century in his solitary appearance against them.

Bell, at a tasty looking [8.20], could be the latest English strokemaker to shine on good Australia wickets. Kevin Pietersen (2006), Michael Vaughan (2002) and Nasser Hussain (1998 when he was fluent) have all topped England's batting charts.

The historic criticism about Bell is that he has tended to only score runs on good wickets against average attacks. He should be fine then, especially if he really did get over the psychological barrier of scoring runs when it counted against the South Africans.
If neither argument convinces you, plump for Strauss. He likes the bouncy wickets, has runs in the warm-ups and has topped England's run charts three times on the last four tours.

Recommended bets: J Trott to be England top scorer in Ashes at [5.20], G Swann top England bowler at [2.30].

Top England runscorers and wicket-takers last five away series

V South Africa

344 Collingwood - 21 Swann
313 Bell - 16 Anderson
287 Cook - 13 Broad

V West Indies
541 Strauss - 19 Swann
430 Collingwood - 12 Broad
406 Pietersen - 9 Anderson

V India
252 Strauss - 8 Swann
149 Pietersen - 7 Flintoff
128 Collingwood - 6 Panesar

V New Zealand
274 Strauss - 24 Sidebottom
259 Pietersen - 11 Panesar
250 Bell - 8 Broad/Anderson

V Sri Lanka
278 Cook - 8 Panesar
261 Bell - 7 Hoggard
215 Vaughan - 6 Harmison

Last 12 months top England runscorers

995 Trott 52.3 average
855 Cook 42.7
719 Bell 65
659 Pietersen 36.6
611 Collingwood 40.7
570 Prior 38
511 Strauss 31.9

Last 12 months top England wicket-takers

65 Swann 48.8 strike rate
48 Anderson 48.4
33 Broad 63.2
32 Finn 36.9
11 Bresnan 72.7

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