Michael Vaughan: A good knock from Strauss could mean first blood England

Ashes Betting / Editor / 26 November 2010 / Leave a Comment

Andrew Strauss failed in the first innings but should like this pitch

"All this makes England the value call at [4.2] to win the Test. They’ll have to bowl well early on and they’ll need someone to score a ton when they bat again but any sort of target they set around the 180-200 mark will be competitive. Anything around 270 odd should be more than enough to win the Test and put England firmly in control of the Series."

Fresh from tipping a [7.0] shot as Ian Bell top-scored for England in the first innings, former Test skipper Michael Vaughan tells us why the visitors are still very much in this match and can put themselves in the driving seat if they bat well second time round. Andrew Strauss, over to you...

Life is looking a lot rosier for England at stumps on day two than it was at lunch yesterday. Sports fans who tune into cricket, golf, rugby and other sports on TV may be sick of hearing commentators and pundits talk about momentum and shifts in momentums but don't underestimate the role it plays in sport at this level.

With Simon Katich and Shane Watson looking in control, helped by a couple of referrals that went their way, the game was quickly getting away from England and that delivery from James Anderson to remove Watson may yet prove to be one of the most significant of the whole Series. The way the wicket is playing at the moment it's actually easier to score runs against the new ball so any new batsman coming to the crease is going to find scoring runs difficult early on as we saw with Ricky Ponting and in particular Michael Clarke, neither of whom looked particularly comfortable in these conditions.

James Anderson bowled beautifully today and is unlucky not to have more than two wickets to show for his efforts. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him claim a 'five-fer' tomorrow morning when he returns well rested and comes steaming in from the very first over. Steve Finn and Stuart Broad did ok whilst Graeme Swann didn't bowl nearly as well as we know he can but he still has a big role to play in this match, particularly when Australia bat again. Swanny was the most hyped up and talked about bowler coming into the Series so even a bloke as relaxed as him will have felt under some sort of pressure coming into this match but I'm still expecting great things from him.

England were guilty of a few soft dismissals in the first innings and they can't afford to make those sort of mistakes the second time round. The man who looked most comfortable at the crease against the Aussie bowling attack first time out was "Ian Bell":http://betting.betfair.com/cricket/ashes-betting/michael-vaughan/michaels-match-previews/michael-vaughan-ian-bell-can-inspire-england-to-first-test-win-231110.html, who scored a fluent 76, which was enough to make this column's first tip a winning one; we were paid out to the tune of [7.0] as he ended up England's top bat in the first innings. I've already said that the easiest time to score runs is against the new ball so I'm going to back Andrew Strauss to put the disappointment of his first innings duck behind him and score 50 or more runs at around [2.5]. Irrespective of his first innings failure, this is a pitch that should suit him and we've seen in the past how he likes to lead from the front and be aggressive in a bid to put the opening bowlers under pressure early on.

As far as the outcome of this Test goes, it's probably 'advantage Australia' at the moment because with five wickets in hand and two set batsmen at the crease they could build a first innings lead of 100, which would really put England under the cosh. But it's not inconceivable that Australia take a lead of just 20 or 30 runs into the third innings. After all, Michael Hussey and Brad Haddin will have to start from scratch tomorrow morning and play themselves in again so a flurry of wickets early on could be on the cards. Especially if Anderson maintains the line and length he bowled throughout much of today.

All this makes England the value call at [4.2] to win the Test. They'll have to bowl well early on and they'll need someone to score a ton when they bat again but any sort of target they set around the 180-200 mark will be competitive. Anything around 270 odd should be more than enough to win the Test and put England firmly in control of the Series. A fascinating day's play is ahead of us.

Recommended bets:

Back England to win the First Test at [4.2]
Back Andrew Strauss to score 50 runs or more in the second innings at [2.5]