2009 Ashes / Paul Moon / 03 July 2009 / 1 Comments

Injury worries, a negative captaincy and lack of mental toughness will ensure England lose the Ashes ... again. So says Paul Moon anyway...

Punters should set hype and statistics aside and acknowledge that there are three reasons why England will not win the 2009 Ashes series - injuries, captaincy and mental toughness.

Despite a fingers crossed approach regarding fitness there remain grave doubts about England's two best players in Kevin Pietersen and Andrew Flintoff. It is unlikely that either will finish the Ashes!

Pietersen had admitted earlier that he might not be able to play in every Ashes Test because of his Achilles injury. He then did his best to allay concerns by declaring himself "practically fit". Receiving perineural injections into the spinal nerve so as to reduce inflammation of the heel thus easing pain does not constitute fit of any description!

These sorts of injuries need rest and it is surely only a matter of time before it resurfaces which would sideline him for the rest of the series. Remember this type of steroid injection can only be administered twice. The chances of him playing in all matches are zero and with the Dutch debacle still firmly in the mind the likelihood of England competing without him vanishes.

Likewise there is absolutely no chance of Flintoff maintaining his fitness throughout a series. Pre-match/series planning should regard him merely as a bonus selection. Building a strategy around him accentuates the folly of reliance! He will contribute little.

Shorn of the boldness and firepower Pietersen and Flintoff bring England are left with a soft underbelly. This is compounded by the negative captaincy of Andrew Strauss. He lacks courage as was shown in the Caribbean earlier this year where he was solely responsible for the series defeat. Not only will he cut a negative and solitary figure it is not impossible that we will witness him buckle, especially after the Aussies target him. It could be that bad!

There is only one thing missing from Ricky Ponting's resume and that's being captain of a winning Ashes series in England. In 2005 he made a point of absorbing the full pain of defeat and the personal taunts he endured before vowing to win on English soil in 2009.

Preparation and focus is always key and the Australians have had a perfect lead up to the Ashes. They played three high pressure Test matches in South Africa (ranked two) and won while England beat a West Indian rabble (ranked seven) that demonstrated the worst excesses of attitude I have ever witnessed by a national team.

Their early exit from Twenty20 could be a blessing in disguise. They went to Leicester for a lockdown training camp where they spent time identifying areas of concern. They worked on their fitness and intensity and have now proclaimed themselves ready.

Australia are more determined and tougher individually and as a team. Their cohesive unit will expect to win while a fragmented England merely hope. The Aussies bowlers will hunt in a pack and are quite prepared to win ugly. These things remain alien (2005 apart) to the home nation.

England do have an ace card in the quality of their spin bowlers. It is critical for their chances that they make this advantage pay dividends. They must strike early and win in Cardiff as you sense these Australians will get stronger the longer they're on tour.

My hunch is that England will start well then fall away. English patriots would be advised to enjoy the first Test in Cardiff while we have our best players available, it could go downhill from there. England are [4.2] Australia [2.62] Draw [2.6].