2009 Ashes / The Betfair Contrarian / 01 July 2009 / Leave a comment

It was only a matter of time before the Betfair Contrarian came out and offered his opinion on the Ashes, without being invited to do so. Here's why outsiders England are going to win back the little urn...

The Betfair Contrarian: Why England are going to win the Ashes

When the Contrarian first gushed optimistically about England's chances of regaining the Ashes last August, the hosts were available at [3.5] on Betfair. The fact that the price remains the same almost a year on suggests that those wise words fell on deaf ears, although Kevin Pietersen lasting just three Tests as captain obviously didnt help instill a sense of excess optimism. Ever generous and forgiving though, the Contrarian is prepared to allow you a second chance by offering another helping of reasons to back Andy Flower's side.

England have a very strong home record

Australia may have whitewashed England two-and-a-half-years ago Down Under, but the outsiders are a completely different prospect with home advantage. Since Australia's last series win over here eight years ago, England have hosted 15 series and only lost two of them (against South Africa and India), both by a one-test margin, while winning ten and drawing three. The aggregate score of England's home test matches over that eight-year period is an overwhelming 30-8 margin in their favour.

Australia's last win here came when England were struggling at home

In contrast, the Australia team that came over and won 4-1 in 2001 were facing an England side who were nowhere near as impressive at home. Then, England had won just six of the 15 series they had hosted prior to that one with a vastly inferior aggregate test score of 18-20.

England are capable of successive home triumphs

There have been eight previous occasions when England have won successive home Ashes series. In fact, you have to go back to their failure to follow on from 1926s success in 1930 to find the last time they didn't build on a home Ashes win with at least one more.

The visitors aren't carrying their usual cocky momentum...

In recent years, Australia have headed into the Ashes on a great run of form. Two-and-a-half years ago they came into the Ashes on the back of a five series winning run in which they hadn't lost a single test, and four years ago arrived on a 16 series unbeaten streak, having won the most recent six of them. In fact, ahead of each of the last six Ashes they had won at least four of their last five series - but not this time. A year ago they were unbeaten in nine series during which they only lost one test match but since then they have lost two of four, against South Africa and India.

...and they're not the same team that humiliated England in Australia

Their indifferent form is less surprising given that since crushing England in 2007 Shane Warne, Justin Langer, Damien Martyn, Adam Gilchrist, Matthew Hayden and Glenn McGrath have all retired while coach John Buchanan also stepped aside and was replaced by his assistant Tim Nielsen. Four years ago, Warne took 40 wickets, twice as many as Australia's second most successful bowler Brett Lee (who is still in the squad but has struggled for form and fitness recently) and 16 more than anyone on the victorious England team managed. In the 2006-07 series, Warne and McGrath took 44 wickets between them. Second choice spin bowler Stuart MacGill has also retired which leaves Nathan Hauritz, who has played in just four test matches, as the only specialist slow bowler in their squad.

England were right to change captains

The hosts decision to get rid of Michael Vaughan, the man who captained them to victory four years ago, is likely to prove a shrewd one. Only one man has captained England to more than one Ashes triumph over the last 50 years - Mike Brearley - whereas on two of the last three occasions where a victorious captain has been replaced after a home triumph, the new leader has come up trumps in the next hosted series (Peter May in 1956 and David Gower in 1985). Therefore, despite Andrew Strauss being second choice behind Kevin Pietersen when Vaughan's successor was named, there is every chance he will be successful.