Ashes Betting: The Cardiff conclusion is that Australia will win the Ashes

2009 Ashes / Frank Gregan / 13 July 2009 / Leave a comment

England must wish for lots of luck and even more rain if they're to avoid defeat in the second Test, says Frank Gregan.

Wow - what a fantastic first Test! The expectation bar going into the match was in orbit, but with the weather set to intervene, a pitch flatter than a pancake party in Holland and the possibility of the Welsh crowd joining forces with our Cork Hat-wearing neighbours from Earls Court there was every chance that the match would turn out to be a flop. Not so - it was an absolute peach!

But let´s get real here and tell it how it was - England got battered. The Aussies were a class above producing four centurions in one innings and the loss of only six wickets during the entire match. They failed to take the required 20 English wickets falling one short, denied by Paul Collingwood, then Jimmy Anderson and Monty Panesar denied their 'rabbits' tag to leave the Aussies ruing that almost two thirds of a day's play (59 overs) was lost to the weather.

Everything that could have gone England's way went their way. They won a toss deemed to be crucial given their team selection revolved around having the benefit of two spinners to turn the ball on the final day. The irony is that the English spinners did play a vital part during the final day but with the bat - not the ball! Prior to that, England got beyond the magical 400 mark in their first innings courtesy of some great attacking play late on that got the crowd on the edge of their seats and baying for Aussie blood.

The first delivery of the Australian innings and the first ball that Philip Hughes faced in Ashes cricket fronted him up and nearly cost him his wicket. The atmosphere was electric, England were right at it and on top. Jerusalem, Land of Hope and Glory and My Old Man's A Dustman reverberated around the ground, and the Aussies were reeling - "go for it boys - rip their throats out," cried the crowd. Then the Aussies scored about 4 million runs and barely seemed to lose a wicket - normal service was resumed!

There is a simple conclusion that has to be faced if money is to be made on this Ashes series: Australia are a class above England and will win this series despite the home side achieving an OJ Simpson-like result in the first Test. Amazingly, fuelled by wagers placed by God Save The Queen singing drunks draped in the cross of St George, the series winner market has Australia priced at [1.82] to win, the English are a very skinny [3.75] with a drawn series available to back at [5.1]. The Aussies were matched as short as [1.39] yesterday, probably before the tail's heroics and the bars opened! My recommendation is to fill your boots on the Aussies - remember what happened to OJ second time around!

There will be some patriotic Betfarians out there who believe England can conjure up another freak result in the second Test starting on Thursday. Finding a winning formula may well be beyond them but if they learn their lessons from Cardiff then they may just be able to scrape another draw. They need to win the toss, easy enough, Ponting normally calls tails so the use of a two headed coin will put that one in the bag.

They need another wicket with plenty of bounce and must pack the lower order with players who are capable of emulating Harry Houdini and the late great Steve McQueen on his motorbike! The 12th man and physio should be put on standby for regular visits to the middle, but England's trump card is that rain is forecast for three of the five days meaning a draw might just be attainable! A more balanced mind will back Australia to win the Test at [2.8].