World Twenty20 Betting: Sri Lanka and West Indies have the balance

Twenty20 / Ed Hawkins / 26 April 2010 / Leave a Comment

Mahela Jayawardene is a key man for Sri Lanka

"With a win percentage of 60, only Pakistan and South Africa have a better strike rate in the international game than Sri Lanka"

Only days after the IPL, the World Twenty20 begins in the Caribbean. Ed Hawkins highlights some lessons learned from India and explains why the balance between the positives and negatives is key when trying to find an outright pick

If there was one thing the Indian Premier League has taught us (and boy, have there been some shocking eye-openers) it was that the most dominant team does not win. For the IPL read World Twenty20, which starts on Friday. For Mumbai read South Africa.

Bristling with power and the cocksure strut of a team with players in form who have found rhythm in the Caribbean before, South Africa appear to be the value pick at [6.40]. Jacques Kallis, Dale Steyn, JP Duminy and Albie Morkel impressed in the IPL while Greame Smith, AB de Villiers and Mark Boucher have undeniable quality.

We wouldn't back them with someone else's money, though. Aside from the likelihood South Africa could well repeat their 2009 World Twenty20 performance (they swept all before them before tripping over their own shoe laces in the semi-final), the consistent failure to win a global tournament has become such a bugbear they are a disaster waiting to happen in the knockout rounds.

So having succinctly dealt with the team which is likely to see most of the money in the coming days, who will triumph in the third instalment of a competition expected in years to come to be the most popular of the sport? Australia have jolly status at [4.30], India are [5.70], Sri Lanka [7.20], West Indies [11.50], England [12.00], New Zealand [13.00] and Bangladesh [100.00]. Afghanistan (yes, really), Ireland and Zimbabwe are anything you like.

There are plenty of positives about each of the big seven sides mentioned there. But the balance between positive and negative is the most important in terms of value. For example, Australia have a fine mix of hitters and finisher but no bowling. Why is Doug Bollinger, Chennai super hero, not in the squad? New Zealand squeeze every ounce of ability but always fall at the final hurdle. England, apart from the Bollinger bit, are exactly like the Aussies. Pakistan, as talented as they are, will find it tough to win back-to-back tournaments, a rarity in Twenty20.

So that leaves us with India, Sri Lanka and West Indies. The former will be praised to high heaven. 'They could put out two sides in this tourney and both would reach the final', 'Look at their strength in depth'. Put your fingers in your ears. India could well be the lay of the tournament. A dreadful record of only eight wins in 26 50-over matches in the Caribbean plus the loss of Virender Sehwag erodes confidence.

Sri Lanka are the bet and it is a baffler as to why they are not shorter. With a win percentage of 60, only Pakistan and South Africa have a better strike rate in the international game. Mercifully, the projected draw sees the Lankans miss those teams until the semi-finals and their balance and form should comfortably see them into the last four.

They can do the lot and have done so in the past in West Indies, making the last World Cup final there. Tillakaratne Dilshan and Mahela Jayawardene will open to give fast starts, Kumar Sangakkara, Sanath Jayasuriya (reverting to a middle-order role) and Angelo Matthews will do the finishing. It is with the ball they really excite. Lasith Malinga is one of the best death bowlers in the world and in Muttiah Muralitharan and Ajantha Mendis they have spinners who will do damage on useful surfaces.

West Indies are our back to lay. They are a spinner away from having the perfect balance. A semi-final spot is within their grasp when you consider that the key ingredients are covered: fast starts (Chris Gayle), middle order power (Shiv Chanderpaul, Ramnaresh Sarwan, Kieron Pollard), solid allrounders (Dwayne Bravo and Darren Sammy), death bowling (Jerome Taylor). They probably won't win it, but they could go mighty close.

Projected Super 8 draw - Group A: Pakistan, New Zealand, South Africa, England. Group B: Australia, Sri Lanka, India, West Indies. Top two in each go through to semis.

Ed Hawkins says: back Sri Lanka to win World Twenty20 at [7.20] and back to lay West Indies at [11.50]