Twenty20 World Cup / Andrew Hughes / 18 June 2009 / Leave a comment

A place in the final is on the line and Sri Lanka are the [1.68] favourites to take it, but what does Andrew Hughes think?

Team News
Sri Lanka have used just 12 players in five matches in the tournament, something they have in common with the other unbeaten side, South Africa. Their only selection dilemma ahead of this game is whether to play the experienced Nuwan Kulasekara or youngster Isuru Udana. Based purely on form in this tournament, Udana could consider himself unlucky if he were to miss out.
West Indies have a trickier problem to resolve. Assuming pace spearhead Fidel Edwards is fit, he will come back into the side. But his replacement Darren Sammy was economical with the ball on Monday night against England and the Windies may decide that on a good batting wicket like the Oval, extra bowling options are more important. If they do, the out of form Andre Fletcher could miss out, with Keiron Pollard moving up to partner Chris Gayle.

Conditions
The forecast is good so hopefully we should get a full game and no repeat of the apocalyptic skies seen over south London on Monday night. Of the three pitches used so far in this tournament, the Oval is by far the best batting track. The surface is hard and true and with the ball coming on so nicely onto the bat that it tends to disappear into the stands with regularity, with a par score here being around 170 at minimum. There is a strong possibility that Sri Lanka will be batting first as they have tended to do so upon winning the toss whereas West Indies seem to prefer to chase down a target.

Match Odds
Throughout the tournament, it has been said that Sri Lanka's batting is one or two players light, yet they have continued to rack up the victories. It has helped that three of their big four batsmen have been in form, but the main factor in their success has been their astonishingly varied and dangerous bowling. They deserve credit too for continually trying to push the boundaries of the format. We have seen Tilakaratne Dilshan's scoop shot, Mahela Jayawardene playing a reverse sweep with the back of the bat and Lasith Malinga unveiling a slow, dipping thigh-high full toss that has been unplayable.
The West Indies are a more orthodox team, but no less exciting. Their strength has been in the batting department, with a team full of strokeplayers who score boundaries or get out trying. And for balance, they have good old Ramnaresh Sarwan and Shivnarine Chanderpaul on hand to steady the ship where required.
But for this particular contest, on a pitch where anything slightly short or wide tends to go for runs, I think the side with the best bowling attack will win. Sri Lanka clearly have the edge in this area and on that basis, I would side with them, even at odds of [1.68]. The West Indies though cannot be underestimated and if you wanted to back Chris Gayle's boys, they are available at [2.44].

Top Batsman
Plenty to choose from in these competitive markets and some good prices available. The obvious choices are Chris Gayle [3.5] and Dilshan at around [4.0] but I think there are other options worth considering.
For Sri Lanka, Mahela Jayawardene has been in sparkling form, perhaps because he is free from the pressures of captaincy and with a player of his class and stickability, you know you will get a good run for your money. He is available at around [5.5].
For the West Indies, Dwayne Bravo is worth a look at likely odds of [6.5]. His IPL experience has made him into an extremely effective Twenty20 batsman and he is likely to get to face plenty of overs coming in at three or four.

Featured Market
Andre Fletcher had a good start to the tournament, but has betrayed his inexperience in his last few innings and has become a bit of a liability at the top of the West Indian innings. If he plays, you should definitely look to back Sri Lanka to have the top opening partnership at odds of anywhere around [1.85] or higher.