Twenty20 World Cup / Ed Hawkins / 20 June 2009 / 1 Comments

Pakistan and Sri Lanka meet at Lord's for a potentially pulsating showpiece and Ed Hawkins is on hand to uncover the value

Team news
Unsurprisingly the two finalists have settled sides coming into the showpiece and it would be a surprise if both did not resist the temptation to tweak.

Sri Lanka are the most likely to make a change. Kumar Sangakkara's side have used only 12 players during their unbeaten run in the tournament but will debate whether to bring back fast man Nuwan Kulasekara for Isuru Udana. Kulasekara is rated as the best 50-over bowler in the world and although Udana has done little wrong he looks vulnerable, a fact not helped by decision making which has gifted him 'worst haircut of the tournament' award.

Angelo Mathews' three wickets in his opening over in the semi-final against West Indies on Friday means he will not be without confidence.

Pakistan should continue with Kamran Akmal and Shahzaib at the top of the order with Shahid Afridi, man of the match against South Africa, in a floating role.

In the field, all eyes will be on Younis Khan who could have thrown away victory against South Africa with some bizarre captaincy. Instead of giving the brilliant Umar Gul his full quota of overs he decided Fawad Alam should have a go. He promptly went for 15 off a solitary over. A repeat error could cost Younis.

Pitch conditions
The average first-innings score at Lord's is 152 and with a toss bias of five wins for the side batting first from seven matches, there should be little pressure to post a score of 160-plus. It puts into perspective Sri Lanka's first-innings efforts of 144 v Ireland and 150 v Pakistan (Pakistan's three spinners went for only 5.4 an over). Pakistan posted the highest score on the ground of 175 v Holland. No rain is forecast.

Match odds
It is a testament to the quality of the teams that for the final we have one of the closest betting heats from the 27 matches. Sri Lanka are [1.83] with Pakistan [2.20].

Fair enough one could say given that both would appear to play the game with the same fearless verve. There is nothing to separate them on historic head-to-heads with two wins each and so dominant have they been that their bowlers are jostling for space at the top of the wicket-taking charts, giving a clear indication of what has been key in bowler-friendly conditions. Ajantha Mendis, Umar, Saeed Ajmal and Lasith Malinga are the top four bowlers with 12 wickets while two behind in fifth is Afridi.

The story is not quite the same when it comes to batting. Sri Lanka have three men in the top 10 runscorers (Tillakaratne Dilshan, Sanath Jayasuriya and Mahela Jayawardene) and Pakistan have only one (Younis).

If we can surmise that both are as good as each other with the ball then surely Sri Lanka must be the bet because of their batting prowess? Almost. Sangakkara's side get the nod because of their price. When these sides met in the Super Eight stage with Sri Lanka comfortable winners, they were as short as [1.68]. Pakistan have improved but perhaps not to the amount the market suggests.

Sri Lanka do have that edge with the bat, notably in acceleration at the end of the innings. Pakistan have consistently failed to find the extra gear in the final five overs. But the Lankans also have better fielders - Pakistan had the odd wobble against South Africa and dropped a catch - while Sangakkara's smarts could be worth crucial runs.

Top batsman
Opening batsmen have top scored 50% of the time in matches at Lord's which will be good news for those wanting to jump on the Dilshan bandwagon. The Sri Lanka opener, who fell four short of the first century of the tournament in the semi against West Indies, has 317 runs in the tournament and has failed only once in six innings. He is [3.80].

Kamran Akmal, Pakistan's opener, looks a man in form and is [4.40]. He top scored on this ground against Holland. Dilshan and Younis, who is [5.20], top scored when the sides met earlier but do not discount Jayawardene. He hit a brilliant half-century against the Irish at Lord's and is trading at [5.80].

Featured market
Dilshan is [1.83] to outscore Jayasuriya giving half-a-run headstart. Not a bad wager considering Jayasuriya's 37-ball 24 against West Indies was the slowest of any batsman in the tournament who has lasted 25 balls or more.

Ed Hawkins says: back Sri Lanka at [1.83]