Twenty20 World Cup / Alan Dudman / 12 June 2009 / 1 Comments

Injuries have hit New Zealand hard with Jesse Ryder already back home whilst Vettori and Taylor are serious doubts to play. On a pitch where spin should win the day, all of this means advantage Pakistan, says Alan Dudman.

Team News:

New Zealand are the most injury-hit team in the tournament. Master blaster opener Jesse Ryder is out of the competition due to a virus - he has been sent back home. Captain Daniel Vettori's shoulder is still a cause for concern and he is yet to play a game, whilst Ross Taylor is struggling with a hamstring.

Due to a lifting of the ICL amnesty on players - Pakistan welcome back all-rounder Abdul Razzaq from the wilderness. He has replaced the injured Yasir Arafat in the squad. He wasn't included against Sri Lanka but should start at The Oval. Expect Kamran Akmal to continue at the top of the order. It's their second game in two days - which suits Pakistan as they need momentum and rhythm.

Pitch Conditions:

The Brit Oval's fast deck has seen the quicker bowlers go for plenty in the games so far. There hasn't been much swing, neither has there been any extravagant seam movement. Taking the pace off the bowl is the sounder option - and Pakistan are loaded in that department - Afridi, Malik, Ala, and Ajmal give a brilliant balance to the side.

Sun is forecast during the day. No rain is predicted for the later game in London. Happy days.

Match Odds:

New Zealand look a lay at [1.80]. Although they are an excellent unit, who field and bowl in good combinations - their class has been ripped out of the side with injuries - especially Ryder. If McCullum doesn't score runs they should struggle.

Younus Khan's team look a real danger at [2.1] and could be just warming up following their lack of recent cricket. Spin is winning games so far in the tournament - Pakistan have the better bowling attack and are more than capable of beating a below strength New Zealand.

Best Batsman:

Brendan McCullum seems high risk at the moment to back in this market, and the team could be relying on his runs. It's a weaker line-up without Taylor and Ryder - early wickets could fall - and the sensible plays are Styris [6.00] and Oram [6.70] for most runs.

Pakistan's Salman Butt hasn't got an out-shot in this form of the game, and brave layers could take him on at [5.30]. I am still waiting for Misbah ul-Haq to get going, he is still interesting lower down at around [7.00].

Featured market:

I will be looking to take on Salman Butt in any match bet, as per the reasons outlined above. New Zealand's Ian Butler is nipping the ball around at reasonable pace so Butt could be exposed, and the match bet versus any selected bat -0.5 runs means he is worth taking on.

Recommended bets:

Back Pakistan to beat New Zealand @ [2.1]
Back Scott Styris in 'top New Zealand bat' @ [6.00]
Lay Salman Butt -0.5 runs in match bet @ [2.04]