Twenty20 World Cup / Alan Dudman / 15 June 2009 / 1 Comments

Sri Lanka may only have four batsmen but that quartet is pretty damn good. Or at least too good for New Zealand, says Alan Dudman.

Team news:

Sri Lanka brought in Nuwan Kulasekara against Ireland who was costly with the new ball and went for 47 from four overs. He could make way for the left-arm seamer Isuru Udana.
Batting after the top four remains a big worry - with Mubarak, Matthews and Silva not convincing so far.

New Zealand fans would have been delighted to see skipper Dan Vettori back in action against Pakistan. Injections have eased his shoulder injury. Although he didn't look fully fit, he'll play against Sri Lanka. Ross Taylor is still struggling with a hamstring injury and is highly unlikely to make it. And how they miss Jesse Ryder.

Pitch Conditions:

Brighter and sunnier conditions are forecast later in the afternoon at Trent Bridge, with very little chance of rain. Although I am still struggling to come to terms with the new architecture in Nottingham, the pitch has played very well offering lots of pace and good, true conditions for batters. Sri Lanka posted 192 here against the West Indies, whilst New Zealand hit 198 against Ireland. Sides batting second have had more success, whilst Mendis and Malinga like bowling here.

Match Odds:

New Zealand just haven't looked themselves in the tournament so far, hence the generous price of [2.52]. They are normally such a tight unit who field ever so well, and led by Vettori, love a scrap. However, the batting looks too fragile without Ryder and Taylor, and they are too reliant on Brendon McCullum for runs.

Sri Lanka at [1.62] were always going to be at that sort of price. It was only a minor blip against Ireland, and they should be able to maintain their 100 per cent record.

Top Batsman:

No prizes for guessing who the favourite for the Kiwis will be. Brendon McCullum will be around [4.00] in the 'top New Zealand bat' market. If he fails, I think they fail. For me, he is either frying pan hot, or very cold and therefore too high risk.

Sri Lanka only have four batsmen in the side, and I do worry about what's to come after Jayasuria, Dilshan, Sangakarra and Jayawardene. However, they have all got runs when it matters and the tournament's leading run-scorer Dilshan got big scores in the earlier games at Trent Bridge and should be backed at [4.68].

Featured market:

Sri Lanka trade as favourites in the 'Highest Six Over Total' market. Although the price is fairly appealling at [1.84], I would be more interested in laying New Zealand at around [2.24]. It's potentially high risk if McCullum gets going, but I am hoping he
doesn't.

Recommended bets:

Back Tillakaratne Dilshan in top Sri Lanka bat market @ [4.68]
Lay New Zealand in most sixes market @ [2.24]