T20 World Cup Betting: Memories of 1999 to come back to haunt South Africa

Twenty20 World Cup / Jamie "The Pacman" Pacheco / 16 June 2009 / Leave a Comment

Jamie "The Pacman" Pacheco doesn't argue with the fact that South Africa are the favourites to win the tournament but thinks they'll fall short at the business end once again...

Inspirational, successful captain? Check. Right-handed/left-handed opening bowling and batting partnership? Check. Economical, wicket-taking spin twins for those middle overs? Check. Good balance of big-hitters and nurdlers? Check. Energetic, nimble fielders who hit the stumps more often than not? Check.

I could go on but you get the idea.The truth is there's not much to dislike about South Africa in this T20 World Cup. And if you don't agree with me, you can try your luck arguing with the layers who are going no bigger than [2.6] about Graeme Smith's side to win the whole tournament, with two tough matches still to play. Had India and Australia still been in the tournament they would no doubt have been trickier opponents in the latter stages, on paper at least, but paper in this tournament has no use other than to calculate what the West Indies needed to chase in nine overs last night using the Duckworth/Lewis method. The merits of that system, however, are a discussion for another day but all I'll say now is let's not forget that all three of England's wins in the recent ODI series in the Windies came courtesy of that very same system.

But back to the Proteas and, despite the aforementioned box-ticking, I'd rather be laying South Africa at their current price than backing them. My first concern lies in their batting. The same line-up I've just praised has yet to be tested in this tournament chasing a competitive total.

Their gameplan has been a simple, tried-and-tested one: bat first, have Smith go for his shots early on whilst Jacques Kallis 'manages' the innings and mix up the formidable middle-order depending on the circumstances. Open the bowling with Dale Steyn and Wayne Parnell bowling rapid and aiming at those stumps and turn the pressure on with Herchelle Gibbs, AB De Villiers and JP Duminy patrolling the covers like a kettle of vultures circling a dying animal in the desert. If there's any life still left in the animal, bring Johan Botha and RE van der Merwe on for eight overs of nauseatingly accurate spin.

All well and good but what if South Africa find themselves chasing 170 plus against Sri Lanka or Pakistan and, worse still, Kallis gets out early? There may be shades of Surrey's team in the domestic Twenty20 Cup semi-finals in 2006, who had a star-studded batting line-up including the likes of Mark Ramprakash, Azhar Mahmood, Rikki Clarke and Mark Butcher. The plan was to bat first and let Anil Kumble and Mahmood do the rest with the ball but when they found themselves chasing 176 against a Leicestershire attack taking the pace off the ball they all left it to the next man in to do the business. In the end, they got nowhere near.

You also have to wonder whether a South African side that has came so close on numerous occasions, but never quite pulled it off, becomes hungrier to succeed and eventually does it, or reverts to type and crumbles under the pressure once more. Remember that Kallis, Gibbs and Boucher were a part of that team that from a winning oposition lost what I still consider to be the most exciting ODI ever played in the 1999 WC semis at Edgbaston. And as my colleague Ed Hawkins pointed out during the IPL: is it a coincidence that the Mumbai Indians, who lost a number of matches in the final over, had Shaun Pollock (another member of that 1999 team) as their team mentor?

Either way, though I don't doubt that they are the best-balanced side in the tournament, I have a feeling that a mercurial Pakistan or Sri Lanka side can, on their day, put them in check.