Twenty20 World Cup / Alan Dudman / 15 June 2009 / Leave a comment

India are out of the T20 World Cup and only have a dead rubber against South Africa left to look forward to. Graeme Smith's side are generally ruthless in this sort of situation and this match should be no different, says Alan Dudman.

Team News:

India crashed out of the competition at the hands of England on Sunday, and could be feeling the effects of that crushing defeat. Morale may be a problem with both MS Dhoni and Harbhajan criticising the batsmen for blowing their hopes of retaining the 20/20
trophy.

The bizarre tinkering of the batting line-up against the hosts failed miserably, and I really
do not want to see Dhoni ever coming in at six - he is too good for that. Yusuf Pathan has also
been wasted at seven. RP Singh and Ravindra Jadeja were in for Ojha and Irfan Pathan
against England, and as well as Jadeja bowled, he cost them the chance of victory with
a painstaking 25. He could make way for Ojha.

South Africa are looking like a beautiful sleek eagle surrounded by plump lazy pigeons,
and have the best all-round team in the tournament. They bat, field, spin and bowl pace superbly, and have fielded the same eleven throughout.

Albie Morkel batted at five against the Windies with Duminy dropping to seven, which
gives them great flexibility.

Pitch Conditions:

South Africa have only played at Trent Bridge once in the tournament thus far, and comprehensively outplayed England with a superb display in the field.

It will be interesting to see if South Africa adopt the same pace approach as England
did against India, by bowling as many short balls as possible. Parnell and Steyn are quicker than anything England have, so this could be interesting.

Good teams generally get high scores here, with the forecast for a warm and clear
evening ahead.

Match Odds:

With the champions out of the tournament - India have been sliding since their demise and can be backed in the outright match market at [2.30]. It's a great price for a side that was labelled one of the best only two weeks ago. However, they are out of the competition, and morale might not be as it should.

South Africa continue to bulldoze anyone in their way, and are a pretty decent price to back at [1.70] considering they are [2.64] to win the tournament outright. They have no obvious flaws and haven't been as big as that for a while.

Top Batsman:

All of South Africa's batsmen are getting runs apart from AB de Villiers, and considering I have sided with him twice so far, he has got to strike sooner or later on pitch which will be ideal for his backfoot game. Anything around [5.00] would be perfect.

Rohit Sharma was having a fine tournament until he failed against England. I expect MS Dhoni will have something to prove to the nation, having apologised for the team's exit. He should be seriously considered to end on a high note at around [5.10].

Featured Market:

Two good sides and a decent pitch, with top batters make this a recipe for a fairly high scoring game. We have had two games at Trent Bridge with 190+ scores posted so far. Therefore someone should go on past the 50 mark and I will be backing over 68.5 runs in the 'Highest Individual Score' market at around the [2.56] mark.

Recommended bets:

Back MS Dhoni as top India bat @ [5.10]
Back over 68.5 runs in highest individual score market @ [2.24]