Kumar can take Sri Lanka to Number 1

Twenty20 World Cup / Andrew Hughes / 17 September 2007 / Leave a Comment

Cricket expert Andrew Hughes tell us why Sri Lanka can win the inaugural event and how New Zealand can run them close

Twenty20 promised a feast of cricket and the appetisers were certainly intriguing. In particular, there have been some wonderful batting displays from Gayle, Jayasuriya, Gibbs, Ashraful and Pietersen. So as we wait for the main course, time to reflect on what we have learned so far and, in particular, which qualities a team needs to succeed in this format.

Well the first thing to note is that it is the top order batsmen who win these matches. A good start is vital to cash in on the early fielding restrictions and to avoid a hopeless slog later on. It calls for the very best strokemakers, with the talent to step outside leg or off to turn good balls into bad balls. You also need bowlers who can mix it up. One dimensional pace men or gun barrel straight seamers all get despatched over the short boundaries. Your captain needs to be sharp and tactically astute, able to adapt instantly to changing match situations. And of course it almost goes without saying that with every run being crucial, sharp out cricket is essential

So which teams do best in these departments? First of all, Sri Lanka. They destroyed Kenya and despatched the Kiwis with their top order of Jayasuriya, Thuranga, Jayawardene and Sangakkara looking particularly classy. They have experienced and canny one day bowlers in Vaas, Malinga and Fernando, whilst Jayasuriya is a crafty operator. Captain Jayawardene is an expert manipulator of his field and bowlers whilst their fielding thus far has been slick and efficient. They are available at 6.2 but once they start tearing up the Super Eights, this won't be around for long. I would also consider the 13.0 available for Jayawardene to be top batsman in the tournament and the 12.5 for Malinga to be top bowler.

New Zealand came up against the potential winners in Sri Lanka and are worth sticking with. Twenty20 plays to the strength of their power-packed top order. And though Shane Bond had a bad day at the office against Jayasuriya and Thuranga, he has an excellent economy rate of 6.54 in Twenty20 cricket. He has inventive back up in the wily Oram and workhorse Chris Martin, whilst Vettori and Styris are miserly in the middle overs. Daniel Vettori's captaincy has been quietly impressive and being named Test captain will be an enormous boost to his confidence. I was also impressed with the way they kept their fielding together against Sri Lanka. At 8.8 they represent excellent value.

Two teams to avoid are South Africa and India. Without Kallis, the hosts depend on Smith and the inconsistent Gibbs to carry their batting. De Villiers is out of form and averages just 11 in Twenty20, Kemp is an over promoted slogger and Duminy is too green. Their bowling is entirely one-dimensional. Pollock and Ntini are top class Test Match operators but lack the variety to be effective in Twenty20 and they are followed by a battery of seam up operators with not a spinner in sight and less variety than a North Korean supermarket. On top of that is Smith's rather basic approach to captaincy, as one-dimensional as his bowling attack. An inspirational leader of men if he's in the mood, he lacks the tactical flexibility and savvy to change things if it is going wrong, as it surely will at some point.

India are the worst fielding side in the Super Eights and that alone will cost them. Their batting line up has the potential to be dangerous but inconsistency is their problem and a tendency for their batsmen to leave it to one another. Their line up is also unsettled with their three best batsmen, Uthappa, Yuvraj and Dhoni buried away in the middle order. Their bowling is equally fragile, depending on Sreesanth keeping it together. He and RP Singh lack the necessary variety and will be punished against the better teams. With shaky batting, terrible fielding and an unreliable opening bowlers, you shouldn't go anywhere near the 17.5 currently available.