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England's county pros can't cut the mustard on the big stage but Sri Lanka certainly can

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Andrew Hughes takes a look at who can be in real contention at the business end of the Twenty20 World Cup

There's a lot to be said for conventional wisdom. When that email hits your inbox promising a hefty fee to let a former Nigerian ambassador store several million dollars in your bank account, conventional wisdom prevents you from gleefully replying with your sort code details.

However, when trying to find the value in the market for a new tournament like the Twenty20 World Championship, conventional wisdom is as much use as an ashtray in an English pub. For instance, received opinion has it that what you need to win a tournament like this is a collection of sloggers and bits and pieces players, who've played a lot of domestic Twenty20.

Many pundits are praising the England selectors for picking just such a collection of cricketers and many more will be backing them as a result. But in this case, conventional wisdom is plain wrong.

My reasoning is simple. Just as ability in county cricket is no indicator of Test ability, so it goes with the shorter version of the game. Twenty20 compresses the normal time span of cricket and puts more pressure on batsmen and bowlers to make the right decision. But quality will always out.

That is why Australia, strong favourites inevitably, have taken a full strength Test squad. As ever, our antipodean cousins are the likeliest winners, but at their current cramped odds, make no appeal whatsoever. So is there value elsewhere? I think there is, providing you know where to look.

For a start, I don't fancy the hosts one bit. The omission of Kallis and Hall are major errors. Their batting lacks strength in depth, their pace men, Pollock aside, will not appreciate the slow, low early season pitches and a host of youngsters are being thrown in too soon. If they continue to indulge in their media infighting and show their usual propensity to buckle under pressure, they might not even make the semis.

One team who definitely won't be making the semis is England. They are currently trading at an astonishing 9, under the weight of the patriotic pound and the feel good factor of their win in the Natwest Trophy. It is true that they are an improved side under Collingwood, but there is a desperate dearth of quality in the squad. Leaving Bell and Panesar at home was a mistake, losing Bopara a misfortune but if Flintoff broke down again, that would be a disaster. It is asking too much of the half dozen county pros in the squad to compete and win at this level and I foresee a dismal exit somewhere near the foot of the Super Eight table.

Two teams I do like the look of are New Zealand and Sri Lanka. The Black Caps are solid in most departments; they have vital experience throughout the team, a host of big hitters and a balanced bowling attack led by Shane Bond, the best one-day bowler in the world.

Providing Vettori's captaincy is good enough, they are well equipped to reach the final and at 11 are an excellent value bet. As are Sri Lanka at 9. Though the absence of Mulaliterhan is a blow, they should still reach the semis at least. Their batting is inventive and dynamic, they have three good seam and swing bowlers to cope with the conditions, are a strong fielding unit and a settled, well-captained side.

I also like the look of the West Indies. Anyone who saw their 208 against England in the summer knows how devastating they can be. They bat a long way down and have useful variety in bowling. Their problem as always will be their tendency to switch off and the occasional fielding howler that can prove so costly in this format. But 13 is compensation enough, I feel for this risk.

I should say a few words about India and Pakistan, so here they are. Neither India nor Pakistan will make the semi finals. Their squads have the look of B sides and it is worth listing the number of world class players they are missing: Tendulkar, Ganguly, Dravid, Laxman, Kumble, Zaheer, Inzamam, Yousuf, Razzaq, Kaneria. Neither side can afford to be without such stars and the weight of expectation will fall heavily on young or fringe players. India probably are the better of the two on paper, but with their traditionally poor fielding, they are not a great deal better and both are rightly trading around the 15 mark.

I should also add a word about Bangladesh. A side full of youth and enthusiasm, they have one or two good stroke makers, a bold young captain and are lively in the field. Their bowling is weak but they showed in the West Indies that they can upset the best. They are capable of stealing second place in their group and it might be an idea to back them at their currently huge 150 to lay them off should they progress to the Super Eights

Finally, there are a host of specials markets worth considering, including the interesting innovation of markets on top batsmen and bowlers for each team. For England's top batsman, I would suggest that Owais Shah is worth a look. It is worth remembering that the underrated Shah is England's top Twenty20 batsman currently and is guaranteed a batting place given the makeshift line-up we are likely to put out. I would also consider a small saver on Luke Wright who has the potential to be England's player of the tournament.

• Cricket
• Twenty20 World Cup