Twenty20 World Cup / Editor / 20 September 2007 /

Andrew Hughes thinks the men from down under may be on their way home

Just when the Twenty20 carnival was settling into some sort of order, Pakistan have gate crashed the procession. Always the potentially brilliant wild card in any tournament, in beating both Australia and Sri Lanka, they turned Thursday's Cape Town encounter from a dress rehearsal for the final into an elimination bout. One of these two teams will now be taking an early flight home. The question is, which one?

I think there is every reason to believe that we will be saying goodbye to our friends from down under and that you should take the current 2.46 about Sri Lanka for this match (as well as the 9.0 for them to be tournament winners).

Bookended by their failure against Zimbabwe and Pakistan, Australia's two successes were against Bangladesh and a lacklustre England and the pre-tournament whispers about their lack of preparation and commitment are now openly voiced at press conferences. Meanwhile the Sri Lankans who had looked imperious against Kenya and New Zealand came up against an inspired team in Pakistan before bouncing back to form by caning Bangladesh yesterday. There is no questioning their commitment.

For Australia, everything hinges on Hayden and Gilchrist. Remove one of them early on and you expose a middle order that has looked undercooked and uncomfortable with this format. Their bowling has depended on the metronomic Stuart Clark but he needs support. Brett Lee's performance is therefore crucial, particularly given Mitchell Johnson's waywardness and the surprisingly poor back up bowling from Symonds and Michael Clarke.

For Sri Lanka the key man is Sanath Jayasuriya, both with bat and ball. Against Pakistan, he was dismissed cheaply and his four overs, usually so effective in strangling the opposition innings, went for 64. However, with the cracked Cape Town pitch more conducive to spin, I expect him to be much more economical. Though there will be something in it for all the bowlers who hit the deck hard, Sri Lanka's bowling has shown that extra degree of control and led by the miserly Chaminda Vaas (who's economy rate is an astonishing 4.93) I expect them to win the battle of the pacemen, in a low scoring game.

Meanwhile, in Durban, the unbeaten hosts are strong favourites but in this case, I would take a chance on India in a match that will come down to a contest between their batsmen and the South African seamers. India's defeat of Pakistan is now looking good considering what their neighbours have done since and though they lost to New Zealand, India competed strongly for most of that game and didn't go down by much.

Key for them is Virender Sehwag, a player of such prodigious talent that if he returned to his very best, could transform them into potential winners of the tournament. His 40 against the Kiwis was a welcome boost and his opening partnership with Gambhir looks to be sparking at the right time. Another positive is that in their games so far, all of their batsmen have shown some form and should they put it together at the same time, they will take some stopping.

South Africa are high on confidence but their batting performance against an ordinary England attack was not that impressive, depending entirely on a late Albie Morkel assault on the hapless Schofield and Snape. For them, the return of Gibbs is vital, as the only specialist batsman who is in any sort of form. In his absence, they have relied entirely on contributions from the all-rounders.

If Sehwag and Gambhir can see off the initial assault from Pollock and Ntini, I expect the likes of Uthappa, Yuvraj and Dhoni to make hay against the second and third string bowlers, particularly as the Durban pitch hasn't quite the pace of Cape Town, meaning these lesser pacemen should come on to the bat nicely. At 2.74 India are well worth backing to silence the home crowd.

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