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At last a form of cricket the Aussies haven't mastered

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The Tombs graveyard shift- cricket wizard Mike Tombs burns the midnight oil to tell us why there will be plenty of sixes at Cape Town and why it may be Australia's last match in the tournament

The combined predictive skills of Nostradamus, David Icke and Mystic Meg surely wouldn't have been able to envisage that going into the first major international Twenty20 tournament, the only occasion of one nation beating another by a three-figure margin in international Twenty20 cricket would be England demolishing Australia. This occurred at the Rose Bowl in Southampton in the build up to their Ashes winning summer of 2005. Of the twenty-two players involved that day, only four Englishmen have made the squad to South Africa, compared with seven Australians, including the entire top 6 of their batting order.

So maybe that bodes well for England ahead of their Group B clash in Cape Town on Friday. Um, maybe. On the other hand, with the sole exception of Ben Hilfenhaus replacing the retired Glenn McGrath and fit again Brett Lee returning instead of Shaun Tait, Australia have selected an identical squad to the one which won the World Cup earlier this year, and that surely bodes badly not just for England but for all sides in this tournament.

However, perhaps an even bigger surprise was Australia's defeat at the hands of Zimbabwe in their opening match, making the tie against England a must-win for them to stay in the competition. In the their warm up games Australia also lost to South Africa (although they did manage to beat New Zealand). If they are the best in the world in this shortened version, they certainly haven't rubber-stamped it yet, though it is surely just a matter of time before they do assume some sort of dominance due to their naturally destructive batting line-up, fine fielding and solid bowling line-up. That they haven't done so yet is slightly surprising, especially as several of their squad have played English county Twenty20 cricket, including captain Ricky Ponting.

Overall, greater Twenty20 experience is an edge England have; not only have their regular internationals been able to learn about the game, it has also given the selectors a chance to pick players who have shone for their respective counties. However, some of the choices can be diplomatically called 'surprising'. Mal Loye, Alistair Brown. Mark Ramprakash, Jamie Dalrymple, Andrew Caddick and Gareth Keedy have all been overlooked whereas players such as James Kirtley and Chris Schofield have been included.

Schofield was chosen as the only spinner against Zimbabwe but in Cape Town, with a smaller boundary than most English grounds, he is a weakness Australia will try to exploit. Similarly, ex-Sussex coach Peter Moores is persevering with Matt Prior opening the innings despite looking less confident by the game which may expose twenty-two year-old Luke Wright at number three. Though he may have experienced first-hand at Sussex the abilities of Kirtley, Prior and Wright, his loyalty is surely to England's detriment.

So, we have the best team in the world losing matches and struggling to find their feet against a collection of experienced Twenty20 players who are inexperienced at international level and have yet to play as a team together before this tournament. What does this all mean? It means the result may not be the most reliable bet on offer here! Man-for-man Australia are stronger and are used to winning but until they have played more Twenty20 cricket, they will not be the powerful force we are used to. They may find batting second suits them more as one uncertainty of batting first is knowing what a good score is and therefore batting accordingly. But, beyond the result, and the normal trading opportunities, there are other options which may be appealling.

Odds of 1.5 or better for 9 or more sixes should be received with squeals of glee. Put together two teams full of powerful batsmen (and bowlers), a relatively small ground,weaknesses in both spin departments and this figure should be passed long before the end.
Kevin Pietersen began the tournament with a quickfire 79 (37 balls). Ever the one for attention, back in South Africa playing against Australia is a recipe for Pietersen (or 'FIG JAM' as the Australians unaffectionately refer to him- the acronym standing for 'F*** I'm good, just ask me') to rise to the occasion and top score and/or score 50. Either would be worth backing at 3.5 or better.

It is also worth noting that England do not have to win the match to qualify, merely come a close second. If batting second they may play to secure their qualification rather than risking it in the search of victory they don't need. If this is the case, this will give better value for backing Australia.

After their defeat against Zimbabwe, Australia's odds to win tounament have risen to around 4. A victory here will see them shorten again to around (probably just over) 3. This may be the time to back Australia for the 'best' odds but certainly doesn't offer great value unless you have more confidence than I do that they are sure of victory on Friday.

• Cricket
• Twenty20 World Cup