Betfair Official Blog

A fitting final which Pakistan should edge by a whisker

Click here to view market

Cricket expert Andrew Hughes looks ahead to today's mouth-watering Twenty20 World Cup final between India and Pakistan

A new tournament needs to create memories. If this dizzying fortnight of big hits, fizzing fireworks and thunderous music is to linger longer in the mind than a good night out, there needs to be a proper climax, a dramatic conclusion that people will still be watching years from now. Enter Pakistan and India. Both came here without their stars, but plenty of baggage, including a reputation for self-destruction, discord and sloppy fielding. But under new captaincy, the young pups and fringe players have played with a freedom that is as refreshing as a Cape Town breeze.

So what can we expect on Monday? Well, I'd offer microscopically short odds on India batting first. They defied the prevailing orthodoxy by doing so against England and repeated the exercise against South Africa and Australia. Since their strength lies in their batting, it makes sense. It allows Sehwag and Gambhir to lay the foundations, free from the mental burden of a target to chase, before the clean hitting cohorts of Yuvraj, Uthappa, Dhoni and their find of the tournament, Rohit Sharma, decimate the bowling. So dominant have they been that their longish tail has not been required to wag.

Pakistan have taken the contrary approach. They have inserted the opposition at every opportunity and put their considerable faith in their ability to chase down whatever target they have been set. They have done so calmly and efficiently, adverbs not often used to describe a Pakistan team. These qualities have been most evident in the play of their captain Shoaib Malik and his reliable partner, the admirable and previously much derided Misbah ul Haq. That they have so often chased down targets is even more impressive when you consider the stuttering starts that their upper order have regularly produced. Incidentally, Shoaib is available at 6.0 to be top Pakistan batsman in the final, a price that looks very tempting.

Whilst India have the edge with the bat, Pakistan take the plaudits for their bowling. India have relied on the feisty Sreesanth, RP Singh's prodigious swing and Harbhajan's spearing off spin, but they are not blessed with much back up. Pakistan have a full complement. Mohammed Asif has been occasionally expensive, but has taken wickets consistently. He opens with the tricky Tanvir Sohail, a left-armer who bowls off the wrong foot, a combination that takes most batsmen an over or two to work out. They are followed by the steady and asphyxiating spin of Hafeez complemented by Shahid Afridi's cheeky assortment of leg spinners and scuttling faster balls. And they save the best till last. Umar Gul is usually held back for the closing overs where his virtuoso control of length and pace displays the twin virtues of economy and penetration.

India will need to back up their bowlers with another tigerish display in the field. Whilst both teams have shown improvement in this department, theirs is the more remarkable transformation, the result of sheer enthusiasm and team spirit as much as technique and practice. They still offer up the occasional over-enthusiastic overthrow but their energy and camaraderie has been a joy to watch. And whilst Shoaib's assured captaincy has been a pleasant surprise, Dhoni's leadership has been a revelation. His methodical ordering of the field and his manipulation of his bowling attack has been exemplary.

So what will turn this match? Well, when two teams are so tightly matched, the most minor of advantages can assume weightier significance. Into this category come the niggling injuries to two of India's most impressive batsmen. The resurgent Virender Sehwag must pass a fitness test after a groin strain whilst Yuvraj Singh admits to continuing soreness from tendonitis in his left arm.

And then there is the pitch. India have played most of their matches in the seaming, swinging dampness of Durban. But this match will be played on a flat, true Johannesburg belter, where bowlers have been going for nearly nine an over, a pitch where Pakistan have already toppled the mighty Aussies and the powerful Sri Lankans. When conditions favour the bat, it is so often the better bowling side that takes it. That is why I will be backing Pakistan to take victory here at 2.1.

• Cricket
• Twenty20 World Cup