Twenty20 stats suggest the betting between New Zealand and Australia should be closer than it is

Twenty20 / Ed Hawkins / 10 December 2007 / Leave a Comment

The Hawkeye View - The Racing Post's Ed Hawkins previews the upcoming Twenty20 match between Australia and New Zealand and the Chappell-Hadlee series

There are few more awful countries places to tour for a chastened, depleted and out of form cricket team than Australia. Even worse if that team is New Zealand, who could be forgiven for dreading their Twenty20 match and three-game one-day series against their rivals.

New Zealand's confidence is low after they lost the Test series, Twenty20 match and 50-over series in South Africa recently.

Once Australia get on top, and the respective ability of the two sides suggest that should not take long, the locals will enjoy goading and humiliating their opponents - normally to the extent that their performances deteriorate even further.

However, just because Australians are adept at getting up people's noses, that should not mean we should focus solely on doing likewise to friends and family over the festive season by boasting how much we've had it off by getting with the Green and Gold.

Australia are plenty short enough [1.41] to win the Twenty20 international in Perth on Tuesday morning with New Zealand [3.35] unfancied.

The respective records of the teams in the format suggest there should not be such a gulf. Australia have a 50 per cent win record in their 12 games while New Zealand have won five from 12. It highlights the unpredictable nature of Twenty20.

There are ways to try to make the format less surprising, however.

For example a few minutes of research reveals what we should expect if New Zealand were to bat first.

Their average score when doing so is 157, a total they should achieve against the Aussies considering how the home side's bowlers historically fare. Australia concede an average 154 when they bowl first.

Do not expect that total to be enough for the Black Caps. They have won only two of the seven Twenty20 matches they have had to bat first in. Indeed the flip could be very important - Australia have been defeated in four of the five games they have lost the toss.

New Zealand can only hope that the toss is crucial in the Chappell-Hadlee 50-over series, which begins in Adelaide on Friday.
It is true that the last time the sides met in a one-day series - the same competition as it happens - at the start of the year that the Kiwis enjoyed a 3-0 whitewash on home soil. But that match came before the World Cup when Australia were less than focussed and they were severely depleted to boot.

And in 2002 New Zealand prevented Australia qualifying for their VB Series final by beating them three times.

The common denominator in those two series was Shane Bond, however. Bond took 21 wickets in the VB Series and six in two games in the Chappell-Hadlee.

Another injury keeps Bond out of the forthcoming contest and just as New Zealand struggle without their best bowler in Tests, they do the same in one-day matches. In the 11 matches New Zealand have played against Australia without Bond, they have won only three.

So it is difficult to see New Zealand breaking their Bond-less hoodoo, especially when you consider that previous to that series win earlier this year, the Kiwis had one win against Australia in the previous 14 matches and they have lost their last five in Australia.

That would suggest New Zealand would be fortunate to win any of the three scheduled 50-over games and backing a whitewash for Australia could be the way to go.

After all, Australia have a good record of avenging defeats and they will be keen to return
the beating that they suffered in New Zealand. And give their supporters something to be boorish about.

How can New Zealand stop the locals getting on their backs in Oz?