Twenty20 Betting: Stick with Australia in Melbourne

Twenty20 / Andrew Hughes / 02 February 2012 /

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Kohli is the man to back in Melbourne

"Kohli was perhaps the only Indian batsman to emerge from the Test series with any credit and as reliable Twenty20 performer, he’s a good bet to top score for India"

There was no sign of an Indian revival in the first Twenty20 and Andrew Hughes thinks the momentum is all with Australia ahead of Friday's sequel

February 3, Australia v India, Melbourne Cricket Ground, 8:30 GMT, live on Sky Sports 2

Team News
Australia are auditioning players for the autumn's World Twenty20 so it's likely that the three who missed out in Sydney will get a game. Aaron Finch and Shaun Marsh will probably come into the batting line-up and Clint McKay will also play, with newcomer James Faulkner the most likely bowler to drop out.

India haven't named a specialist Twenty20 squad and already have a pretty settled line-up in the shortest format so despite their defeat on Wednesday they're unlikely to make many changes. Irfan Pathan might be included at the expense of Vinay Kumar

Venue and Conditions
Australia have an excellent record at the MCG, having won all four of their Twenty20s at the MCG. The drop-in pitches there are usually pretty sluggish and it's a low-scoring venue by international Twenty20 standards with a total over 150 usually a winning one. Although captains seem to prefer to bat first at the MCG, there isn't any clear statistical evidence that this is an advantage. The opener at Sydney was affected by rain, but the forecast for Melbourne is clear.

Match Odds
M S Dhoni's claims that India were disadvantaged in Sydney because the pitch became harder to bat on when the rain stopped are more evidence of an Indian team reluctant to face reality and learn from defeat. A combination of rustiness from the new batsmen joining the squad and a Test series hangover for Virender Sehwag and Gautam Gambhir meant they were never really in the hunt as they chased a stiff total.

On paper, their batting, full of IPL veterans, should be too much for an experimental home side under a new captain, George Bailey. But the Indian superstars will take a game or two to get back into the swing of limited overs cricket, whereas the Aussie team is packed full of players who've been in Twenty20 mode for the last couple of months. Australia have the momentum and they are clear choice in the Match Odds market at [1.61]

Top Indian Batsman
MS Dhoni looked in good nick as he top scored in Sydney, but it generally doesn't pay to back players who bat down at six or seven in Twenty20 games. Most of the Indian top order disappointed in that game, but Virat Kohli appeared the pick of the bunch. He was perhaps the only Indian batsman to emerge from the Test series with any credit and as reliable Twenty20 performer, he's a good bet to top score for India at [4.75] or better.

Top Australian Batsman
Australia may make a few changes to their batting order and though David Hussey is bang in form and goes well at the MCG, you can't be sure he'll be in the top four, which is where you should concentrate in this format. David Warner and Matthew Wade are the main contenders who are certain of a place and though Warner will be popular at around [3.75] Wade had a good Big Bash League, looked to be in sparkling form on Wednesday and is the better option at [5.0] or better.

Featured Market
The MCG has the longest boundaries in Australia and clearing the ropes there is no mean feat. In the four games staged at the venue during the Big Bash League, the average number of sixes was 6.75 so it would be worth considering backing '9 and under' in the Total Sixes market at [2.25] or better.

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