Twenty20 Betting: South Africa v England

Twenty20 / Ed Hawkins / 14 November 2009 / Leave a Comment

Eoin Morgan will be well supported for top bat

England pulled off a shock in Jo'burg to beat South Africa in the first Twenty20 international. But can they be as good again in Centurion on Sunday or will the hosts hit back? Ed Hawkins tries to find out

Team news
For the T20 international at Centurion on Sunday it is unlikely that England will fiddle with the formula which produced arguably their most impressive Twenty20 performance. The D-L Method victory over South Africa, courtesy of their highest total in the format, in Jo'burg on Friday suggested no changes are needed.

But they could strengthen their ranks. Shunting the ineffective Alastair Cook - answers on a postcard if anyone knows what he is doing in this squad - down the order with Jonathan Trott moving to opener could be a smart move. Trott made his name in Twenty20 by breaking record for Warwickshire as an opener. Otherwise, it will be as you were with Stuart Broad unlikely to be risked with a shoulder problem.

South Africa are without Jacques Kallis and his absence leaves a gaping hole. Without the burly right-hander, the hosts fielded only four specialist batsmen. Heino Kuhn, a wicketkeeper-batsman, and swing bowler Yusuf Abdullah were slated to play in this game but South Africa may have had a change of heart given they are in danger of losing the series.

Match odds
Surprised by England's brilliance at The Wanderers? You shouldn't be. It was entirely predictable given England's recent successes in Twenty20 have all come batting first on cracking pitches and when they are whopping outsiders.

Paul Collingwood's men are unfancied again on a decent batting strip. They are [2.96] to make it two wins each on the historic head-to-heads in Twenty20 with South Africa [1.50].
What counts against England is the feeling that South Africa are too efficient to lose consecutive matches. It has happened to them three times in their short Twenty20 history and one of those is in current sequence. Are South Africa poor enough to lose three in a row? Probably not.

Pitch conditions
SuperSport Park is another good batting wicket and the ball is expected to fly to short boundaries in the same manner as it did in Jo'burg. There has been only one Twenty20 international played there, with South Africa notching 156 to beat Australia by 17 runs.
A study of the IPL matches played at the ground this year reveals an average run rate of eight per over so backing 160 first-innings runs or more is one for the notebook. Interestingly, there was also a bias in favour of the side chasing, with eight games won by 'wickets'.

Most importantly, there is rain around with showers forecast so be aware of those clever Duckworth and Lewis chaps having a crucial say on proceedings.

Top batsmen
Much of the money for the top-bat market is likely to go on smiling Irishman Eoin Morgan. His 85 off 45 balls in Jo'burg was an aphrodisiac that few will be able to resist when the top England bat market opens with the classy left-hander chalked in at around the [6.50] mark.

With only four specialist batsmen - Loots Bosman, Graeme Smith, AB de Villiers and JP Duminy - there is a dearth of options for South Africa top bat. AB has the best average of those four at this venue while JP smashed an unbeaten 111 against Zimbabwe there only four days ago.

Featured market
We are still waiting for an answer as to what Cook is doing opening the batting for England in a thrill-a-minute format so let's make the most of him while England continue to compound the error. When prices become available for the leftie to score 25 (or even 50) it could be one of the most solid lays you'll come across.