Twenty20 Betting Preview: South Africa v England

Twenty20 / Andrew Hughes / 11 November 2009 / Leave a Comment

Jonathan Trott is a good bet to top score

"(England) will need to play to a level much higher than they have hitherto demonstrated if they are to pull off a victory against a South African team that is superior in every department."

England warmed up for their first big game of the tour with a thumping defeat at the hands of South Africa A. Can they spring a surprise against the formidable Proteas on Friday? Andrew Hughes investigates

Match Conditions

The New Wanderers Stadium, Johannesburg is one of the higher scoring grounds in world cricket. The surface is true, the boundaries in these day-night limited overs affairs are small and at a couple of thousand feet above sea level, the ball seems to fly further and faster than elsewhere. Forget about the stodgy early season pitches we saw at this ground during the Champions Trophy - they were the result of a weather-interrupted preparation. This will be more like a traditional New Wanderers pitch, with the ball flying over the boundary at regular intervals in front of an intimidating home crowd. The only fly in the entertainment ointment is the outside possibility of a thunderstorm that could bring Duckworth Lewis into play.

Team News

With Kevin Pietersen unavailable and Andrew Strauss sitting out Twenty20 games, England's limited options have been reduced further by Stuart Broad's shoulder injury. He is almost certain to be rested. Graham Onions, Graeme Swann and James Anderson also have injury niggles, but are expected to be fit to play with either Tim Bresnan or Sajid Mahmood taking Broad's place.

Micky Arthur has said that every member of the South African squad is likely to get a game over the two matches, but assuming they will want to start with their strongest team, we can expect Graeme Smith and Jacques Kallis to open with AB De Villiers promoted to three and Albie Morkel moved up to five. Charl Langeveldt may play if either Dale Steyn or Wayne Parnell are in need of a rest.

Match Odds

After a couple of satisfactory fifty-over warm up games, Andrew Strauss handed the team over to Paul Collingwood on Tuesday, with familiar results. Though hampered by injuries, England were woeful against South Africa A, posting a paltry 89 that included no less than three run-outs. Against one of the best Twenty20 teams in the world, it is no surprise to see that England are as long as [2.84] to win this with South Africa the firm favourites on [1.53].

You could argue that a warm-up game should not be taken too seriously and that England were up against a team of fringe international players desperate to impress the national selectors. But such arguments are not entirely convincing. Anyone who has seen England play Twenty20 cricket in the last couple of years will know how poor they can be. Their batting has tended towards the timid and the latest opening pairing of Joe Denly and Alastair Cook does not inspire much confidence. Quite simply, they will need to play to a level much higher than they have hitherto demonstrated if they are to pull off a victory against a South African team that is superior in every department.

Top Batsman

With the pitch likely to reward aggressive strokeplay rather than careful accumulation, we should be looking for the more explosive batsmen in either camp. For England, we don't have to look too hard. Matt Prior and Luke Wright will need to play their part, but their middle order batting positions are handicaps when it comes to the top batsman market. Jonathon Trott has already been amongst the runs on tour and should be backed at [4.0] or better.

For South Africa, Jacques Kallis and J P Duminy have both been in form in the one day series with Zimbabwe and with Albie Morkel moving up to five, he begins to enter consideration for the top batsman market. But the solid pick for the Proteas is A B De Villiers, promoted to number three in limited overs cricket, he is the best Twenty20 batsman that South Africa have and should be backed at [3.75] or higher.

Featured Market

During the IPL earlier this year, the average number of sixes scored per game on this ground was eight. Given that statistic, it could prove worth backing '9 and under' in the Total Sixes market at [1.9] or higher.