Twenty20 Betting: Heavens could open up profit chance

Twenty20 / Ed Hawkins / 31 August 2009 / Leave a Comment

Australia were on course for victory at Old Trafford before the rain

"We know that batsmen are not going to cut loose and that overs could be lost so playing the first-innings runs and fifty scored market would be shrewd moves"

England were rescued by the weather at Old Trafford on Sunday but with rain forecast again there are still a couple of value plays for the second Twenty20 international on Tuesday. Ed Hawkins explains all

The Manchester tourist board are unlikely to be doing cartwheels at the moment. The weather ruined the first Twenty20 international between England and Australia on Sunday at Old Trafford and the same could happen again at the venue when the sides meet for game two tomorrow.

Only 22 overs were possible on a miserable day before the players left the field for good as the heavens opened in familiar fashion in the northern city. More of the same is expected and it is difficult to see how a game will be possible when you look at this weather forecast.

When rain, rain and more rain has been predicted it is wise to remind oneself of Betfair's rules in case of abandonment. This cut and paste from the regulations section should help out: "If a ball is not bowled during a competition, series or match then all bets will be void except for those on any market that has been unconditionally determined (e.g. in the 'Completed Match' market). If a match is shortened by weather, all bets will be settled according to the official result (including for limited overs matches, the result determined by the Duckworth Lewis method)."

England are probably grateful for the chance to put their feet up. True to form - remember England have a win percentage of 40 compared to Australia's 48% - they looked out of their depth on Sunday. Australia were on course for victory before the wet stuff came.

Yet it appeared to be an age-old problem for England which caused their slump: they do not help themselves. The decision by Paul Collingwood to bowl first on a sluggish pitch when they have won only two of their eight games chasing was baffling.

In reply to Australia's 144, a target which would have probably been unsurpassable on an Old Trafford surface which is tricky to negotiate for batsmen, England were reduced to 4 for 2. That they appeared to being so comprehensively outplayed has had a slight impact on the match odds market for the second match.

Australia are [1.68], a dip from [1.83] at the start of the match. England are [2.40]. They do not look the most appetising of prospects given the formbook, Collingwood's failure to read it and some muddled team selection.

Following their exit from the World Twenty20 earlier this summer, coach Andy Flower said the team had learnt a lesson that they required more power hitters, of the like of Graham Napier or Dimitri Mascarenhas. Neither played on Sunday and there was a distinct lack of a batsmen who had reputations for big shots.

A middle order of Matt Prior, Collingwood and Owais Shah, all good players who are easy on the eye, are pop gun when cannon is required. Australia got it right with the pick of Cameron White, who top scored with 55.

Despite White's runs coming at No 5, the advice for top-bat bets has to be to get with the openers again. It is something of a broken record but in potentially rain-reduced contests, they get to use the powerplay overs and have the opportunity to bat for longest.

Otherwise the fleeting action we saw should stand us in good stead for profit. We know that batsmen are not going to cut loose and that overs could be lost so playing the first-innings runs and fifty scored market would be shrewd moves. Backing a score of under 150 at around the [2.30] mark is an option when the market matures while you can back [2.52] now that no 50 will be struck.

A players to oppose, most likely on the to score 25 market, would have to be England's Ravi Bopara. He is in horrible form and his confidence looks shot. His last 13 scores for England (in all formats) read: 5, 2, 37, 55, 25, 1,18, 27, 23, 1, 0, 0 and 1.

Of course we must also give a nod to England and the value they could become in, say, a 10-over game. They would be shorter than even money if they were chasing anything less than 10 runs an over. But that is if they bat second. If they have to defend then the formbook should hold up in the rain.