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In Twenty20 judging each match on its merits is preferable to stats

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Cricket stats man Ed Hawkins tells us why there are few patterns to be found in the Twenty20 stats

IN a format which is renowned for being chaotic and unpredictable, punters could be forgiven for craving statistics that lend themselves to a foolproof punting strategy for the inaugural World Twenty20, which begins in South Africa on Tuesday.

Although the crash-bang-wallop nature of Twenty20 lends itself perfectly for the exchange punter prepared to take advantage of overreactions to a boundary or wicket - prices flip-flop on a single ball more often than in 50-over internationals - this unpredictability makes it hard to not want a comfort blanket that a trend provides.

In the English domestic competition shrewd bettors noticed a home bias in the first year - hosts won 31 from 45 group matches and if you had backed them in each of those contests to a £10 level stake you would have won more than £150 - before results evened up. Recently punters have relied on spinners slowing the run rates for the best betting opportunities.
Whether spinners will be so important at the top level remains to be seen. Jeremy Snape, who is in England's squad, can becalm the county pro with his 'moon ball' but it is unlikely it will be as effective against players of the calibre of Ricky Ponting, who will probably put it into orbit.

So we are forced to look elsewhere - casting a keen eye over statistics and scorecards like an outfielder rummaging for a ball just despatched into the crowd.

The search was almost called off following the first round of warm-up matches for the competition in South Africa. Six of those seven games played were won by the side batting second. On Sunday there were more practise games with the team chasing again dominating - four from five were won by the side batting second

That would be a very handy money-making tool were it to continue when the tournament progresses to the final on September 24. Unfortunately such a small sample of matches - and ones where teams used more than 11 players - is not enough to hang any strategy on.
And that is the problem with international Twenty20. Despite the format being a roaring success in England, it has been slow to catch on the international scene, and some players have expressed disquiet that they now have to take it seriously.

There have been just 19 matches played between international sides - Australia beat New Zealand by 44 runs in the first in Auckland in February 2005. Over such a short period it is hard to find a pattern. Ten of those games were won by the side batting first, ten were won by the away side (damaging hopes of a repeat of the home advantage style) while the average total batting first is 162, which is about par on the England domestic scene, too.
Help could be forthcoming with eleven of the 27 matches being played under lights. Teams have become used to bating second in floodlit matches and the days of when the toss was crucial appear to have gone.

However, teams do struggle in South African conditions where the white ball swings more. The floodlit games will be played at Cape Town, the Wanderers and Durban.
The toss will prove vital at Cape Town, a venue where England won a famous World Cup victory over Pakistan thanks to help from the floodlights. In 23 one-day internationals under lights there only five sides have won batting second. They struggle in Durban, too which has a reputation for helping swing bowlers. Nine sides have won batting second in 21 matches. However, in Jo'burg there is no such bias with seven of the 12 games being won by the side batting second.

• Cricket
• Twenty20