Fifty-over cricket and Twenty20 are more similar than you might think

Twenty20 / Editor / 17 September 2007 / 1 Comments

Sports journalist Ed Hawkins has poured over the World Cup statistics and found some surprising similarities

It was said that the only thing you could predict about the world Twenty20 was that it was going to be unpredictable.

Australia's humiliation against Zimbabwe was a stunning endorsement of the above statement, although since that chastening night for the Aussies in Cape Town, proceedings have not been so eyebrow raising.

Sure, Bangladesh beat West Indies against the odds but should we really have been surprised that a hungry, energetic, well-organised outfit beat one which is none of those things? Probably not.

Indeed you could argue that it was completely to form that West Indies were a disorganised rabble - as they are in limited-overs contests - in their two matches and there is plenty of evidence to suggest that team characteristics from 50-over matches have been transferred to the shorter version.

England are struggling to get to grips with the ideas an innovations despite inventing the game, Sri Lanka (World Cup finalists don't forget) look the most likely to stop Australia, New Zealand are solid but not spectacular while India and Pakistan both look untrustworthy.

All we need now is for South Africa to choke in a big match and punters will be wondering why so many pundits were advocating throwing the formbook out of the window.

More importantly a punting strategy which has proved profitable in 50-over internationals is so far proving to be a cast-iron way of raking in the cash in World Twenty20.

Backing the openers in limited-overs matches was always considered wise for two reasons; one, that Nos 1 and 2 would get to use the power plays and two, they had the potential to bat for the longest time. You do not need some fancy mathematical degree to have worked that one out, nor to have realised that it should be almost be doubled in its effectiveness in Twenty20.

Well, not quite double but not far off. An exhaustive study of the previous 50 one-day matches for each of the top eight teams before the World Cup revealed that openers top scored 34 per cent of the time.

In world Twenty20, stats from the first 14 completed matches (or 28 innings to be more precise) show that openers have top scored in 15 of them, with one shared honours. Even if you discount the one incident when a no. 1 batsman and a no. 3 finished on the same score, that is still a whopping 50 per cent success rate.

The value is obvious when you consider that Sri Lanka's openers, Upul Tharanga and Sanath Jayasuriya, were 5.4 and 4.1 respectively on Betfair's top Sri Lanka runscorer market for their match against Pakistan in Johannesburg on Monday.

Jayasuriya has top scored twice in two matches for Sri Lanka. That is to be expected.

The short format is perfectly suited to Jayasuriya's swashbuckling style which enables him to slice anything wide over point or hit anything straight through or airborne over midwicket. Of more interest is that Jayasuriya (and Tharanga) are the most consistent openers in the world.

A study from 50-over internationals show the pair top score more often than any other opening combination. Again, team characteristics from 50-overs apply in Twenty20.

The only discrepancy - in terms of where the runs come from in 50-over and Twenty20 - appears to be at no. 3. Only three batsmen have top scored outright at no. 3 so far. In 50 overs they are far more reliable.

Where the runs have come from
No. 1 6+
No. 2 9
No. 3 4+
No. 4 3
No. 5 2*
No. 6 4*
No. 7 2
+Includes one shared honours
*Includes one shared honours

Comments (1)

1. srinath | 20 October 2007

   well done by zimbabwe beating australia was a difficult chance and to india also confident team australia zimbabwe and india have beaten.
   india are the twenty 20 champions and australia are world champions.but in future cup australia beat india by4-2 in 7 match.then twenty 20 today?if india lost today india will be in 2nd position and pakistan at 1st position.fifty overs match is not like twenty overs match.fifty over match is harder than twenty 20.