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England v New Zealand Twenty20: The stats suggest McCullum is worth giving a miss to top-score for the Black Caps

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The Hawkeye View - Ed Hawkins recalls Brendon McCullum's outstanding 158 not out in the IPl's inaugural match but crunches the stats to find out why he's poor value to top score for New Zealand on Friday

IS it a bird? Is it a plane? No. It's Super Mac. Or Brendon McCullum to be exact.

Extraordinary batsman the New Zealand opener may be but are punters right to expect to see some herculean strokeplay when the Twenty20 international between England and the Kiwis takes place at Old Trafford on Friday?

At the moment McCullum is around [4.0] to top score for his side in that contest, a price which no doubt will attract an army of backers because of his reputation as one of the quickest runscorers in the world.

His standing is justified, of course. Anyone who witnessed his incredible 158 off just 73 balls for Kolkata Knight Riders against Bangalore Royal Challengers in the first match of the IPL will attest to the view that McCullum probably puts some of the most destructive batsmen in the world in the shade at present. Ten fours. 13 sixes. A strike rate of 216.

The knock was one which left one open mouthed and thanking the Gods that one wasn't an international bowler. His swing of the blade was metronomic and that old cricketing cliché that the bowlers 'couldn't bowl to him' was never truer.

'He hit them to all parts' was another well-worn phrase which couldn't be used, however. McCullum's eye was so good that he was able to score the vast majority of his runs through midwicket, manoeuvring the ball from outside off on occasions to make use of his favourite scoring area.

Have a look at his wagon wheel here:

http://contentuk.cricinfo.com/ipl/engine/match/335982.html?view=wagon to see how he scored his runs that day.

Impressive. But now time for some home truths which might make one think again about piling on to McCullum in Manchester, starting with his record in Twenty20 matches for New Zealand. It isn't very good.

In 15 matches McCullum has top-scored only twice, a ludicrously poor return for a player so talented and one that has opened the innings on 13 occasions.

Secondly, his record against England is poor in this form of the game. In three matches against them he is yet to make it out of double figures, suggesting England know how to get him out. His scores read 9/5/4.
Ruling McCullum as bad value is all very well, so long as one provides an alternative. So step forward Ross Taylor, a [5.0] shot, who showed he is in tremendous form in the Test series between the two countries.

Taylor outperformed McCullum in the last domestic Twenty20 competition in New Zealand. He hit an astonishing 290 runs at 58 with a strike rate of 205 to finish top runscorer in the State competition, with McCullum well down with 150 runs at an average of 30 and strike rate of 140. Indeed, Taylor has top scored for New Zealand in twenty20 internationals the same amount of times in McCullum and in one less match to boot.

For punters who are merely interested in playing the match odds, the statistics suggest that the coin toss could be crucial. In England's 13 Twenty20 internationals they have won five times. And four of those victories came when they set the opposition a target. So England may not be such hot favourites as odds of [1.84] suggest if they have to bat second.

However, there are other facts which suggest that the market is about right. England average 171 when batting first compared to the 158 scored by New Zealand, who are [2.16]. And the Kiwis' run of six straight defeats suggest they will need a superhuman effort from someone.

• Cricket
• Twenty20