Champions League Final Betting: T&T v NSW

Twenty20 / Ed Hawkins / 23 October 2009 / Leave a Comment

Kieron Pollard's hitting is key for T&T

It's Caribbean flair v Aussie ruthlessness in the final in Hyderabad today. Ed Hawkins tries to work out whether Simon Katich's team can counter the exuberance of Daren Ganga's side

Team news
There has been much talk about the 'secrets' of success for the two finalists, New South Wales and Trinidad&Tobago, in the inaugural Champions League. NSW have been classed as ruthlessly efficient and T&T are unpredictable flamboyance. But their core strength has been picking the same players.

T&T have used only 13 in the tournament and their hand was forced for once change when they lost Darren Bravo to a niggle. His replacement, Adrian Barath, struck a half-century in his first game and has not looked back.

Incredibly, NSW have picked the same XI for each game. Granted, internationals like Phil Hughes, David Warner, Simon Katich, Brett Lee, Nathan Haurtiz and Stuart Clark pick themselves but they have resisted the temptation for tinkering.

Pitch conditions
The surface is flat and true; ideal for batting. T&T amassed 213 there against the Eagles while when these sides met in the second stage at the venue, T&T chased down 171.

Match odds
Underrated before a ball was bowled in the tournament and underrated at the halfway stage, it is no surprise to see T&T chalked up as outsiders once again. They are [2.36] for a second victory over NSW, whose tough Aussie exterior always meant that punters would have to be soft indeed to price them at anything higher than the [1.73] they currently are.

T&T's victory over NSW at Hyderabad could have reduced the gulf but it would appear that the market has opened up a gap again because Daren Ganga's team have not had a day off between the semi-final. Whether this is a factor is tough to gauge. Momentum and euphoria could carry them all the way to glory. Tiredness? Surely only emotional fatigue is a problem.

What could be a worry is their unbeaten record. Twenty20, as we have said many times before, is an unpredictable format and despite five successive victories one cannot help but feel that soon their number will be up. Twenty20 is not an exact enough science for a team one team to continue fell all before them. When games can turn in an instant on the odd misfield, a missed shy, dot ball or boundary then T&T have to be vulnerable.

Of course, we could say the same about NSW. Their only defeat came against T&T when Kieron Pollard rescued the Caribbean side with a withering assault. He bludgeoned 54 runs off just 18 balls to rescue his side from certain defeat at 118-6.
His wicket will be key again and it would be fair to reckon that T&T will at some stage trade lower than their current odds. A back and lay could be the way to go. If Pollard is crucial, NSW's strength with the bat lies with Hughes and Warner. They have three 50-plus partnerships including an whopping 121 against T&T.

Top runscorer
Given the statistic regarding Hughes and Warner it is likely that much of the money will go in their direction for top NSW bat. They are both [3.95] and it is worth mentioning that when one (or both) have reached the late teens one could lay off for a tasty profit.
We know that openers dominate Twenty20 because of the time they get at the crease so this column would not put you off getting with either man, especially as in the two games NSW have played at this venue, Hughes has top scored twice and Warner has hit a half-century.

T&T have a plethora of possible punts on their top-bat market. All of their top six appear to be in form apart from Lendl Simmons, who could have been out twice before he failed against the Cape Cobras. Opener Barath is hitting it extremely well and might be the bet at [4.70].

Featured market
Hyderabad is a cracking batting wicket and the first-innings average has breached 160 in this tournament. Backing NSW or T&T for 160 or more in the first dig is advised at around [2.00].