GC'S Festival in a Flash: World Hurdle day

Cunningham's Fez / Graham Cunningham / 17 March 2010 / Leave a comment

Blue sky, a packed stand and a competitive field - all we need now is a few winners...

Legend hast it that St Patrick banished snakes from the island of Ireland and some shock results on the day that bears his name had many punters in the mood to leave Cheltenham quick sticks. It doesn't get easier on Thursday, but Racing UK analyst Graham Cunningham has been eyeing the best of the action in part three of his Festival In A Flash series.

"He has bundles in hand on official figures and lines up on the back of six wins on the spin, so why do I want to take a swing at Big Buck's in the World Hurdle?"

1: Just when you think Festival handicaps couldn't get any tougher, along comes the Jewson. This renewal is jam packed with horses who could be much better than their current marks, but China Rock has had precious little chance to show what he can do on good ground over fences. Weapon's Amnesty was a similar case of an Irish raider blossoming on spring ground yesterday and China Rock's fine effort in a red hot Ballymore Hurdle here last year makes him well worth a second look off a mark of 141.


2: The place laying angle hasn't gone well thus far this week, but I'm still keen to oppose a couple in the Jewson. I'm struggling to envisage proven mudlark Take The Breeze hitting the board unless there is a deluge overnight, while Gansey's freewheeling style could leave him vulnerable to a posse of potent finishers from the third last.


3: Taking under [5.0] in any Festival handicap is fraught with danger, but there is no denying that Alfie Sherrin warrants being such a short price for the Pertemps Final at 14:05 given that he's a lightly raced improver fresh from bounding clear of posse of pursuers at Newbury who have since gone on to frank the form several times over. He's been hiked 12lb to a mark of 144 but that seems most unlikely to stop him running a cracker.


4: Ainama and Fredo make more appeal than most as potential place lay candidates. Both horses have bags of ability, with Ainama plainly less exposed than most after a tenderly-handled effort at Newbury before Christmas and Fredo lining up on the back of a career best effort when bounding clear at Haydock. However, stamina remains a potential concern for the smooth-travelling Ainama, while Fredo has been hiked 14lb for his Haydock romp and may well have played his hand a shade too early as regards this big pot.


5: Conditions races always attract me more than handicaps at the Fez, but the Ryanair Chase at 14:40 looks every bit as tough as it would have had the assessor had been allowed to do his worst. The Nicholls camp have been very bullish about Poquelin for weeks, but Tranquil Sea and Planet Of Sound top my short list. Tranquil Sea is no bargain at a shade over [5.0] but his proven course form and accurate jumping are big plusses. Planet Of Sound is far less reliable in the jumping department, but his best form makes him better than a [16.0] chance and his stable are in fine fettle at present.


6: The fact that Voy Por Ustedes is trading at [16.0] and bigger having been sent off at [1.8] when second in last year's Ryanair is bound to attract some punters. And VPU might well attract my attentions, too, but only as a small place lay option. Alan King's gelding hasn't looked anything like his hardy old self on his last two starts and the fitting of blinkers for the first time after that laboured effort at Newbury last time has a hint of desperation about it.


7: He has bundles in hand on official figures and lines up on the back of six wins on the spin, so why do I want to take a swing at Big Buck's in the World Hurdle? In short, because [1.73] is too short for me at this meeting and Master Minded's eclipse shows that even Homer nods now and again. In addition, Big Buck's has that on and off the bridle style which means he nearly always drifts in-running. I wouldn't put anyone off laying him with a view to backing him at [3.0] in the run. Come to think of it, I wouldn't put anyone off laying him full stop.


8: Backing more than one horse in a race at the Festival is a perfectly valid ploy and Tidal Bay, Sentry Duty and Time For Rupert all have some upside at the current prices. Tidal Bay has a fine Festival record and enough natural ability to give even the very best a fright when the ground is good, while Time For Rupert ran a cracker to chase him home in the Cleeve Hurdle here in January and Sentry Duty is a dangerous floater if ridden with a view to pouncing late. Perhaps Big Buck's will overwhelm them all again. But the value lies in taking him on.

Tags: Big Buck's, Cheltenham Festival betting, Graham Cunningham's Festival in a Flash, Horseracing betting, Tidal Bay, Tranquil Sea, World Hurdle Betting