TVG v Timeform: Friday Pick Six challenge!

TVG v Timeform / Stephen Kennelly / 05 November 2009 / Leave a Comment

"The Aidan O'Brien-trained Heart Shaped lost out in an agonising finish to the first running of the Juvenile Fillies Turf 12 months ago and Lillie Langtry, representing the same owners, looks to have sound claims of gaining revenge. The smart prospect is yet to finish out of the first-three in a season which has yielded three wins and over £600,000 in prize money and will be right at home on the fast surface," say Timeform.

Together they have a vast accumulated knowledge of racing across the world - so who will come out on top on day one of our Breeders' Cup Pick Six challenge - US racing dons TVG, or the UK-based kings of equine ratings Timeform?

The Pick 6 on Friday has a guaranteed pool of $500,000 ($2million on Saturday) and you've got a free $10 Tote bet from Betfair so you've no excuse to get picking!

We've got the best brains from both sides of the Atlantic to make sure you've got every angle covered. First up is Todd Schrupp from TVG who has a loyal following stateside with his Pick 6 selection. Of course we've got to keep things civilised but competitive so we asked our tea drinking buddies from Timeform to highlight their fancies for the Pick 6 this Friday.


Leg One - The Breeders' Cup Marathon

TVG - The Morning Line for this race is quite accurate in making the European three-year-olds like Mastery and Father Time solid favourites, indeed they are more accomplished in Group races than their older US-based rivals. However, there are better opportunities in the Pick Six Sequence to narrow down and a win outside of Mastery and Father Time will create some serious separation from the other players in the Pick Six Pool.

Timeform - Britain can get off to a winning start and make it two from two in the Marathon with St Leger winner Mastery. The three-year-old has improved markedly in 2009 and had the wayward-looking Father Time three and a half lengths behind when landing the final British Classic of the season at Doncaster in September. Last year's winner Muhannak is another with temperament issues and the biggest danger to the selection could come from the ever-green Cloudy's Knight who is likely to appreciate the step up to a mile and three-quarters.
TVG Selection - #6 Mastery, # 4 Cloudy's Knight
Timeform Selection - #6 Mastery, # 4 Cloudy's Knight


Leg Two - Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf

TVG - American based Tapitsfly has been training sensationally for this race. Aidan O'Brien trainee Lillie Langtry has a significant class edge over the field. House of Grace overcame a very rough trip to win on the synthetic in her most recent start, but her trainer feels she is better on the Turf.

Timeform - The Aidan O'Brien-trained Heart Shaped lost out in an agonising finish to the first running of the Juvenile Fillies Turf 12 months ago and Lillie Langtry, representing the same owners, looks to have sound claims of gaining revenge. The smart prospect is yet to finish out of the first-three in a season which has yielded three wins and over £600,000 in prize money and will be right at home on the fast surface. The unbeaten pair of German challenger Junia Tepzia and House of Grace look her biggest threats.
TVG Selection - #7 House of Grace, # 8 Lillie Langtry
Timeform Selection - # 8 Lillie Langtry #11 Junia Tepzia


Leg Three - Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies

TVG - Literally half this field has a realistic chance to win. Blind Luck looked great in winning the Oak Leaf at Santa Anita last out, but her training since then has not impressed. Negligee was outstanding in her Alcibiades win, the half-length margin of victory belies how good she was. Connie and Michael has just one start, but it was a thoroughly impressive win.

Timeform - It's an all-North American field in the Juvenile Fillies and the key piece of form looks to be Blind Luck's success in the Oak Leaf Stakes over course and distance last month. She had Always A Princess and Beautician behind her that day and can follow-up from Devil May Care.
TVG Selections- # 10 Negligee, # 6 Connie and Michael, # 3 Blind Luck
Timeform Selections - # 3 Blind Luck


Leg Four - Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf

TVG - This is the part of the Pick Six Sequence that can truly be narrowed down. Forever Together has not had the year most expected and there is talk she is not the same. In my view she has been compromised by some questionable rides and some dodgy weather. Midday clearly needed her run in the Prix de L'Opera and is ready for a huge race. This is between those two.

Timeform - Henry Cecil's Midday is the sole non-American representative in the Filly & Mare Turf, but British-trained runners have a good record in this race in recent years, and we fancy the three-year-old to give her popular trainer his first Breeders' Cup winner. The form of her success in the Nassau Stakes at Glorious Goodwood is particularly strong, and she may have too many gears for last year's winner Forever Together and Magical Fantasy, who is two from two over course and distance.
TVG Selections - # 6 Midday, # 2 Forever Together
Timeform Selection - # 6 Midday


Leg Five - Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint

TVG - On the surface another two-horse race. Ventura dominated this one last year on her way to a track record performance. Her form and training coming into this year's renewal is just as good. Informed Decision beat Ventura earlier in the year and overcame trouble to win her most recent start. Because of the top two contenders' running style, there might be a possibility of an upset.

Timeform - Ventura has been a revelation since arriving in the US and can land back-to-back wins in the Filly & Mare Sprint. She's yet to finish out of the first two in nine starts in North America and can reverse the placings with Informed Decision from their meeting at Keeneland in April when the selection was giving her two pounds and went down by a head. The unexposed Sara Louise, one of two Godolphin runners in the race, could be the biggest danger.
TVG Selections - #9 Ventura, # 7 Informed Decision
Timeform Selections - #9 Ventura, #2 Sara Louise


Leg Six - Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic

TVG - Careless Jewel is the best three-year-Old Filly in America not named Rachel Alexandra. Her speed from the rail is going to be very hard to catch and singling her to end the Pick Six would be a solid strategy. Rainbow View has not built off a tremendous two-year-old campaign and turned it into a memorable three-year-old season for John Gosden, but her form is headed in the right direction after her Group I win at Leopardstown. Music Note has returned to form, but over some very suspect fields.

Timeform - The front-running Careless Jewel should ensure the Ladies Classic is a real test and that could set the race up nicely for one of several hold-up horses, one of whom is Rainbow View, who, much like her trainer's Breeders' Cup winner Ravens Pass 12 months ago, seems to have got better as the year has progressed. Last year's second and third, Cocoa Beach, and Music Note, have no Zenyatta to worry about this time around and seem sure to be bang in the firing line also.
TVG Selections - # 1 Careless Jewel, # 8 Rainbow View
Timeform Selection - # 8 Rainbow View