Playing The Breeders' Cup Odds: TVG's American Outsiders

Breeders’ Cup Betting / Todd Schrup / 05 November 2009 / Leave a Comment

Gio Ponti is Todd Schrup's live long shot in the Breeders' Cup Classic

"Gio Ponti was having one of the best years by an American Turf horse since Manila, before he was upset in his most recent start. His last race may set him up nicely for this one, and late last year he won over this track."

Overall Europe is poised to have another stellar year at the Breeders' Cup World championships. There are some races Friday and Saturday, where any win by an American based horse would be considered an upset. Here are my Longshot possibilities for American based horses, regardless of the European presence or not, in various races.

Friday

Race three - Breeders' Cup Marathon

Cloudy's Knight (#4)
A nine-year-old who has returned to form this year, and either one of his last two races make him a contender. Will be running late.

Race four - Juvenile Fillies Turf

Rose Catherine (#4)
She made a dramatic improvement when moving to the turf. She not only showed brilliant speed in her turf debut, she finished up a strong final eighth of a mile in :11 1/5th.

Race five - Juvenile Fillies

Biofuel (#12)
She is actually a Canadian longshot, but she is in the same group of Canadian-based horses as Negligee who is the one to beat in this race.


Saturday

Race five - Juvenile

Eskendereya (#5)
The race he won in his most recent start was scheduled for the turf, but was moved to the main track after severe rains. The field left something to be desired, but his professional effort suggested a bright future.

Race Six - TVG Breeders' Cup Mile

Justenuffhumor (#10)
He was severely compromised by the Soft ground at Keeneland in his most recent start. Expect big improvement over the Firm going.

Race Seven - Dirt Mile

Mambo Meister (#6)
He cannot possibly beat Mastercraftsman. However, he can run second at a huge price in the exotics.

Race Eight - Turf

Presious Passion (#6)
European Punters beware, this horse will have a 10 length lead at the midway point of this race and has a realistic chance to hold on if the riders on the European contenders do not take him seriously.

Race Nine - Classic

Gio Ponti (#7) (pictured)
He was having one of the best years by an American Turf horse since Manila, before he was upset in his most recent start. His last race may set him up nicely for this one, and late last year he won over this track.